Group of death

Every time the World Cup rolls around, it seems there is one group where 3 or sometimes even 4 very strong teams have been drawn together. For WC2006 in Germany, I don't see there being any particular group of death, but no doubt some are stronger than others. Back when the groups came out, I made a post on another blog regarding the draw for the group stages, and remarked upon the apparent strength of Group E, based on the FIFA rankings. I put a little more work into it and came up with the following table, based on FIFA's rankings, and the where teams rank in an average of 4 rankings systems.

	FIFA	Aggregated
Group A
Germany	16	11
Costa Rica	21	28
Poland	22	20
Ecuador	37	32
Total weight	96	91
Group B
England	9	5
Paraguay	30	23
Trinidad & Tobago	50	56
Sweden	14	10
Total weight	103	94
Group C
Argentina	4	6
Cote d'Ivoire	42	42
Serbia & Montenegro	47	26
Netherlands	3	2
Total weight	96	76
Group D
Mexico	5	14
Iran	19	24
Angola	61	63
Portugal	10	8
Total weight	95	109
Group E
Italy	12	9
Ghana	50	57
USA	8	16
Czech Republic	2	3
Total weight	72	85
Group F
Brazil	1	1
Croatia	20	15
Australia	48	37
Japan	15	17
Total weight	84	70
Group G
France	5	4
Switzerland	35	27
South Korea	29	44
Togo	56	58
Total weight	125	133
Group H
Spain	5	7
Ukraine	40	29
Tunisia	28	35
Saudi Arabia	33	48
Total weight	106	119

Using the FIFA rankings, the groups ranked from strongest to easiest are: E (72), F (85), D (95), A and C (tied with 96), B (103), H (106) and G (125). The combo-rank gives a different order: F (70), C (76), E (84), A (91), B (94), D (109), H (119) and G (133). All of a sudden, my boys (that is, the Dutch, in Group C) don't seem to have such a cushy group. Perhaps because FIFA, whose rankings factor in a team's performance over 8 years, undervalue up-and-coming teams like Serbia and Montenegro (47th) in comparison with the other three ranking systems examined (24th, 19th, 18th). Group D ranks much weaker by the 2nd method because the historical performances of a team like Mexico are given far more weight by FIFA (5th) than the rest (16th, 20th, 16th).

Still, I stand by my quick picks to advance: Germany and Poland (Group A), England and Paraguay (B), Argentina and the Netherlands (C), Mexico and Portugal (D), Italy and the Czech Republic (E), Brazil and Japan (F), France and Switzerland (G) and Spain and Tunisia (H).