Thursday, October 12, 2006

Just average

Since it is already covered, maybe even more extensively, over at Aggr Ranking, putting together an ordering of national sides based on averages of a set of alternative rankings myself is a bit of a vanity project.

But that's just what I've done. You can download the current edition (93kb, PDF) or find it on the sidebar. I intend to publish every month, within the first week or two of the month, based on the FIFA rankings and the following alternatives:
  • ELO: This is probably the most well-established and statistically rigorous of the alternatives.
  • Ziaian: Easily the most home-spun, but he publishes regularly, and the results fall well within the realm of believability.
  • Xocca: My favourite among my German discoveries.
  • Mondfoot: Kind of like the crazy French uncle in the rankings family. Still they publish consistently and have been doing so for a long time, without which the whole exercise is somewhat futile. Plus it brings a bit more ethnic diversity, and a certain joie de vivre to the table.
The method is astoundingly simple. Each of the 5 rankings systems has an ordering of countries. In my ranking, the countries are ordered in ascending order (ie: from lowest to highest) by an unweighted mean of the 5 rankings. A few notes:
  • The list of countries ranked is not exhaustive. Instead I rank only those 205 countries considered under the FIFA rankings. Other systems (ELO, Ziaian) consider more, others (Xocca) less.
  • For those countries which are not ranked under all systems, an average is taken of those in which they are ranked -- that is, the sample size is smaller.
That's all. The top 20 under the 12 October 2006 edition of the averaged ranking are:

Rk Country FIFA ELO Ziaian Mondfoot Xocca
Average









1 Brazil 1 1 2 1 1
1.2
2 France 2 2 3 2 2
2.2
3 Italy 5 3 1 9 5
4.6
4 Argentina 3 4 5 12 3
5.4
5 Netherlands 6 5 6 7 4
5.6
6 England 4 6 7 6 7
6
7 Germany 8 7 4 5 6
6
8 Czech Republic 7 10 9 4 9
7.8
9 Portugal 9 8 8 8 8
8.2
10 Spain 10 10 15 3 12
10
11 Denmark 16 9 12 11 14
12.4
12 Switzerland 14 13 13 23 17
16
13 Mexico 17 17 14 18 16
16.4
14 Sweden 18 12 11 34 11
17.2
15 Croatia 24 16 10 25 13
17.6
16 Romania 25 14 17 21 15
18.4
17 Turkey 28 17 19 16 18
19.6
18 Greece 22 19 22 19 23
21
19 Uruguay 15 15 18 50 10
21.6
20 Nigeria 11 21 48 14 25
23.8

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