Out of touch

Ticket tracking

2012-01-21T12:04:00.002-06:00

Back in 2009, as the hype began to build in advance of the Montreal Impact's CONCACAF Champions League clash with Santos at Olympic Stadium, I became rather obsessed with tracking the ticket sales for that match.

Now that Toronto FC is selling tickets for their quarterfinal match, some interesting comparisons can be drawn.

I don't any useful conclusions can be made, since so many significant variables are in play. For example:

Montreal didn't have the advantage of welcoming the most famous soccer player in the world to their stadium.
Toronto FC has been the recipient of largely glowing press over the last 5 years, as a fan experience if not a team on the pitch.
Both teams have engaged in promotional pricing and some house-papering to varying degrees.

But you just want the numbers. Back in '09, Montreal reached the 35,000 tickets sold mark on February 4th, just over 3 weeks ahead of their game. Toronto reached that number yesterday, with over 6 weeks to until their knockaround with the LA Galaxy.

The lesson, then, is that there is certainly a market for big one-off matches in big indoor stadiums during the soccer-starved winter months. And that the clubs' pricing suggests that the event as marketing opportunity exceeds its value as a sheer moneymaker.

Canada to 74, Josh Simpson joins Young Boys

2012-01-18T19:47:00.004-06:00

We're number 74!

It's the middle of the month, so cue the release of the latest FIFA rankings. The CP release follows the standard template, including the obligatory sandwich shot

Canada is tied with China in the rankings, sandwiched between Iraq and Georgia.

But if it makes you feel any better, in the latest Human Development Index rankings, Canada is 6th, sandwiched between New Zealand and Ireland. Iraq is 132nd. Georgia, interestingly, is 75th in both rankings.

The FIFA rankings won't affect Canada meaningfully for a few years now, so I have nothing further to say on the matter.

Josh Simpson to spend 3.5 years with Young Boys

The big news yesterday was that Josh Simpson had terminated his contract with Turkey's Manisaspor after claims of non-payment. That led immediately to irresponsible and premature speculation that he would sign with his hometown (well, almost) Vancouver Whitecaps, which would be a disappointing step back. This can be put to rest with confirmation by a Simpson relative on the Vs board that he has signed a 3.5 year deal with Young Boys Bern of the Swiss League.

The Swiss League is no great pool of talent (don't tell Eric Hassli) but Young Boys play in Europe nearly every year and are in a Europa League position currently.

The single day that Simpson spent unattached compares favourably to the travails of Milan Borjan, who has been unemployed for weeks, and counting, after ending his stay with Sivasspor, another Turkish club, under similar circumstances.

Speaking of unreliable speculation, a Dutch-language Turkish football website suggests that Turkey giants Galatasaray and Fenerbahce were in competition for his services. If this was true, one could argue that the Young Boys move suggests a lack of ambition. But it's likely more truthy than grounded in fact.

The linked article uses the "according to Turkish media sources" instead of the more common English catch-all "player A has been linked to ...".

Canada to play Armenia in Cyprus

2012-01-17T21:35:00.005-06:00

Armenia!

Hey there, 2012! It's me. Sorry you haven't heard from me yet.

But today there was news significant enough to warrant a post. After a much-rumoured late February friendly against Tunisia apparently fell through, the CSA announced today that the men's national team would take on Armenia in Cyprus on February 29th.

This is an important year, undoubtedly, for the Canadian national team. In a few short months (5 to be exact) the squad will be taking on Honduras, Panama and Cuba for one of two spots into the final hexagonal round of CONCACAF qualifying. 2012 is also the centennial year for the association, with a glamour friendly or two vaguely promised.

A neutral site match against Armenia is surely not a glamour friendly. The Armenians had a decent showing in Euro qualifying but ultimately fell short, finishing 3rd in their group behind Russia and Ireland. Their FIFA ranking of 46 is 26 spots better than Canada, so they should pose a good test.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Canada has never faced Armenia in international play. They have, however, played a match in Armenia. Armenia, Colombia, that is; a 3-0 loss to the Colombians on March 30th, 1988.

In a news conference, Stephen Hart suggested Atiba Hutchinson, Canada's best player by some measure, would not be fit enough to be selected. This may be a somewhat political way of saying that PSV Eindhoven might not be keen on letting him go for a meaningless match, as Hutch was injured twice on international duty in 2011. He has been taking part in the friendlies during the Eredivisie winterstop, so there is no reason to believe he wouldn't be ready by then.

Look out for appearances from some newish faces also playing in Europe. I'd expect to see at least one of Marcus Haber, Randy Edwini-Bonsu, and Milan Borjan to be called for the match.

The best soccer video of 2011

2011-12-28T10:35:00.006-06:00

If you only watch one footie clip this year, please, oh please, let it be this one:

One of the underrated aspects of this video is the adidas ad in the back which reads the fastest boot just got a brain, when it is abundantly clear that the dude's brain just got a boot.

This video is interesting in a personal way to me. I spent a year living in the Netherlands and the first 6 months were spent in a small town in the dunes, where the nearest Eredivisie side was AZ Alkmaar, then just beginning their rise to big 4 status along with PSV, Ajax, and Feyenoord. In the middle of a fairy tale UEFA Cup run, I quickly caught the AZ fever. So popular was this club at the time that I couldn't manage to get tickets to a match at their cozy stadium (since replaced).

I did manage to take in two Ajax matches during the second half of my stint in the country while living in Amsterdam. Ajax are much like the New York Yankees of the Eredivisie: if you don't love them, you hate them. I sat through two underwhelming wins over bottom-feeders at the ArenA (where the above incident took place) secretly hoping the home side would fail to pull out the points. My friend and I were on the receiving end of a dual glare from father and son for failing to celebrate a late winning goal against long-since-relegated FC Den Bosch.

The kicking incident took place in a KNVB Beker (Dutch Cup) match with Ajax leading 1-0 in the first half. The match will now be replayed in its entirety, with teams allowed to field any XI they choose, at an empty ArenA on January 19th, a Thursday afternoon. AZ manager Gertjan Verbeek had pulled his players off the field in protest, and rightly so, after the AZ 'keeper, Esteban, had been red-carded for his actions.

Meanwhile, the Ajax fan at the centre of it all has become somewhat of an internet celebrity; a Hooligan Wesley meme is all the rage these days in Holland. On a not-so-light note, he has been sentenced to six months jail time.

2011: A blogging year in review

2011-12-28T10:25:00.004-06:00

2011 was the year of twitter. Or was that 2010? In any case, what better way to summarize the most popular posts on the blog from the past year than to copy/past the tweet retrospective that I recently subjected my followers to.

o_o_t out of touch

Thanks to all my readers, contest entrants, and especially commenters at Out of Touch in 2011. Looking forward to a big 2012 in Cdn soccer!

47 seconds ago Favorite Reply Delete

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1. "Nutrilite Canadian Championship pool: 2011 edition". For most, the only time they'll visit the blog oot-football.blogspot.com/2011/04/nutril… #yearinblogging

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2. "The new Canada kits: the good and the ugly" Remember when you cared about this? Me neither. oot-football.blogspot.com/2011/01/new-ca… #canmnt #yearinblogging

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3. "New contest: Gold cup goals" Players picked tournament goal scorers to win a 2" Radzinski doll. oot-football.blogspot.com/2011/05/new-co… #yearinblogging

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4. "Canada to host 2015 WWC" This successful hosting bid is one of the successes of 2011 that I barely remembered. oot-football.blogspot.com/2011/03/canada…

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5. "Know your enemy #1: St Lucia" Will you ever give this country a second thought again?. oot-football.blogspot.com/2011/07/know-y… #canmnt #yearinblogging

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6. "Canada v Greece: the roster so far" Roster speculation from the first friendly of 2011. oot-football.blogspot.com/2011/01/canada… #canmnt #yearinblogging

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7. "Canadian content: A dismal report" A midterm grade on the atrocious Cdn content showing for the pro teams, esp. Van oot-football.blogspot.com/2011/07/canadi…

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8. "Voyageurs Cup Pool: Week 2 report". Interest in my contests always outstrips interest in my thoughts. oot-football.blogspot.com/2011/05/voyage…

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9. "FIFA rankings: April" Of particular interest since they would affect seeding for WCQ. oot-football.blogspot.com/2011/04/fifa-r… #canmnt #yearinblogging

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10. "CONCACAF WCQ round 3 schedule". It is what it says it is. oot-football.blogspot.com/2011/11/concac… #canmnt #tastethesoup #yearinblogging

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The year in blogging: I'll be counting down the 10 most popular posts on my blog from 2011. Feel free to put me on ignore. #soccer

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The lesson? If the goal is to give the people what they want, then expect to see more sartorial musings and contests in 2012. But if you're being realistic expect more (or likely less) of the same.

Thanks for reading, and commenting. I'll give a special shout-out to my most dedicated commenter, BearcatSA, who is a real human and not a spammer (I think) and appears always to have read my posts before writing.

National team debuts in 2011

2011-12-18T20:13:00.004-06:00

One of the rituals in these parts at year's end is to have a look to see how the player pool for our men's national team has evolved. It's not always easy to say which players may have had their final kick of the ball for Canada in a given year (though I can't imagine we'll be seeing Paul Stalteri again in a Canada shirt), but it is possible to recognize those who had their first taste of the soup in. This will be the fifth year running wherein I carry out the exercise on this blog.

Have a look at previous years' debutants:

Before we get to the list of Canadians to receive their first senior cap this year, let's quickly look at how involved the 2010 first timers were in Stephen Hart's setup in 2011:

Adam Straith: 5 matches, 450 minutes
Terry Dunfield: 6 matches, 532 minutes
Pedro Pacheco: 4 matches, 87 minutes
Nana Attakora: 1 match, 20 minutes
Marcus Haber: 1 match, 8 minutes
Massih Wassey, David Monsalve, Randy Edwini-Bonsu, Gavin McCallum, Gianluca Zavarise, Carlo Rivas: no appearances

Being a non-Gold Cup year, and far away from critical WCQs, 2010 was used by Stephen Hart to see a number of players, with a total of 11 new selections. Of those 11 only two, Adam Straith and Terry Dunfield, were regular players in 2011. Haber and Attakora suffered from injuries and might otherwise have been more involved, while Randy Edwini-Bonsu is still one to watch for the future.

Now for 2011's debutants, first opponent, caps, and minutes played:

Player	Debut against	Caps	Mins
David Edgar	Greece	7	489
Milan Borjan	Greece	5	405
Tosaint Ricketts	Greece	9	225
Ashtone Morgan	St Lucia	2	109

Unlike 2010, where a lot of fringe-y players were given a chance, in 2011 Hart seems to have focused on those who he felt would be able to make an impact in important matches.

Here's a closer look at their contributions:

David Edgar (24 years old / Burnley FC, England)

It has been quite gratifying as a Canadian supporter to see the always-promising Edgar finally make his mark in 2011. One can only imagine how much more gratifying it must be for the player himself. On the club side, he had a handful of Premiership appearances and a memorable goal to his name years ago, but it took until this year for him to settle into a regular role in the Championship for Burnley. For Canada he was captain of the disastrous 2007 U20 side, but did not make an appearance for the senior side until February in Greece. His playing time was probably inflated by injuries to regular centre-halfs Kevin McKenna and Dejan Jakovic, but he's likely one of the first 3 or 4 names pencilled at the position for Canada. He also showed some versatility by deputizing at right back in one match, with mixed results.

Milan Borjan (24 years old / Sivasspor, Turkey)

Milan is a guy most of us probably hadn't heard of 18 months ago. For me, he is the most exciting of the players to get their first cap in 2011. Not because of any standout performances -- in fact, he had a memorable and costly gaffe in the Gold Cup match against Panama -- but because he provides quality at a position of little depth. Until Borjan's emergence, there wasn't much behind Lars Hirschfeld on the 'keeper depth chart; the minutes doled out to Kenny Stamatopoulos recently are evidence of that. Add Borjan's frequent statements of appreciation and devotion to his adopted country and you've got yourself a popular guy.

Tosaint Ricketts (24 years old / Politehnica Timisoara, Romania)

Somewhat of a super-sub under Stephen Hart, Ricketts made the most appearances of all new faces in 2011, featuring in 9 of 11 matches, but garnering only 225 minutes. He was also the only newbie to score, notching goals against Ecuador, Puerto Rico and St Kitts. He has speed to burn, but is unlikely to play a regular starting role until he can learn to better fit into the team concept. This much was in evidence in that final WCQ against St Kitts in Toronto, where his one goal disguised a bevy of squandered chances.

Ashtone Morgan (20 years old / Toronto FC, MLS)

The youngest man to make his debut, Morgan featured in late WCQs against St Lucia and St Kitts. He is the first product of the MLS academy system to make his Canada senior debut, which is itself an exciting development. At left back, he'll face continued competition from veterans Mike Klukowski and Marcel de Jong, both of whom play at a much higher level. Still, he looked adequate for Canada and his strong showings for TFC in MLS and CONCACAF Champions League suggest he is one for the future at the international level. One can only hope that his career continues to progress; he should look at Nana Attakora's 2011 season as a cautionary tale of how quickly a promising start to a career can become derailed.

CSA Players of the Year 2011

2011-12-11T15:31:00.003-06:00

As they do every year, the CSA has been soliciting votes from coaches and media for their 2011 Players of the Year. Awards are handed out to men and women in the U17, U20 and World Cup categories.

The criteria for selection, as worded in the CSA press release, follows:

The award will celebrate Canada’s top-two soccer players in recognition of their 2011 achievements with both the national team and their respective club teams.

I hope I am not offending anyone when I state that I care little about the female categories (though Christine Sinclair should win the senior womens' award again) and the junior nominees (though it would be tough to go against Ashtone Morgan in the mens' U20 category).

My interest lies with the senior male nominees. As always, the list of suggested players is a bit curious. Here it is:

Male Nominees
Marcel de Jong | GER / FC Augsburg | Toronto, ON
Dwayne De Rosario | USA / DC United | Scarborough, ON
David Edgar | ENG / Burnley FC
André Hainault | USA / Houston Dynamo | Hudson, QC
Simeon Jackson | ENG / Norwich City FC | Mississauga, ON
Will Johnson | USA / Real Salt Lake | Toronto, ON
Olivier Occean | GER / SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Brossard, QC
Tosaint Ricketts | ROM / FC Politehnica Timişoara | Edmonton, AB
Josh Simpson | TUR / Vestel Manisaspor
other selection

Most curious is the absence of 2010 winner Atiba Hutchinson. This could be explained by an extended injury absence in the latter half of the year that kept him out of action for club and country. But the exact same could be said of Marcel de Jong, who with 180 minutes played less for Canada than any other player on the list.

I think I may value a player's national team contributions more than most voters might, so despite the fact that Hutchinson played more matches at a higher level than anyone else on the list, his lack of time for Canada (5 matches and 429 minutes in 2011) disqualify him from my consideration.

Unfortunately, we are left then with a relatively uninspiring bunch. None of the remaining players were consistently excellent for Canada. Will Johnson would be closest, but he was downright atrocious at St Kitts following Salt Lake's exit from the MLS playoffs.

Let's eliminate some more names, shall we?

Tosaint Ricketts is an exciting player for the future and opened his Canada account with 3 goals in 2011, but he is a bit part player for the near future and surely knows it. He is a regular in the Romanian second division, which kind of says it all.
Olivier Occean played in 5 Canada matches in 2011 and split time between the German 3rd and 2nd divisions. He is a journeyman European striker, an accomplishment in itself, but doesn't jump off the page.
David Edgar, finally, is a full-time player. He seems to have found his level in the English Championship. Still, I don't think he plays much for Canada this year if it wasn't for injuries to Dejan Jakovic and Kevin McKenna.
If the award was based purely on club performance, it would possible to make a case for Andre Hainault. But the man was absent too often for Canada.
Simeon Jackson would have been a good choice if this award was handed out in summer. But he hasn't been featuring for Norwich and has delivered mostly unremarkable performances for his country, hat trick against St Lucia notwithstanding.

We are left with Dwayne De Rosario and Josh Simpson. These players are second and first, respectively, in minutes for Canada in 2011, so their contribution can't be knocked, at least for quantity. Simpson had 3 goals in 2011, De Rosario had 4, though all were penalties. Simpson is an important player for a mid-table Turkish side, undeniably a higher level than MLS, where De Rosario was a controversial selection for MVP.

De Rosario will win the award, clearly. He has the name recognition due to time spent in North America, and more specifically, the vote-rich Toronto market. But does he deserve to?

I'm almost ready to admit that he does. Because there were no standout performers in a Canada shirt in 2011, one has to look to club performances. And unlike the MVP vote, where an argument can be made that team success must be considered, this vote can more easily be made on the basis of individual excellence.

His MLS tally (16 goals, 12 assists) blows away any other 2011 calendar year stats, adjusting for level of play, and despite my reluctance to admit it, equaling Dale Mitchell's all-time Canada goals record at 19 deserves some form of recognition.

So if I had a vote (and I don't), it would be for (gulp) Dwayne De Rosario. I know.

Lies, damn lies, and .500

2011-12-07T17:16:00.003-06:00

Allow me to take a break from my irregular soccer-themed postings to provide you with a rant from a secondary (actually tertiary, behind CFL gridiron football) passion.

Did anybody catch the big Jets game yesterday? The one where they knocked off the defending Stanley Cup champs from Boston, a team that was unbeaten since October (actually, they weren't)? You know, the game that put the Jets over .500 (they're not)?

If you've spent any time reading this blog, you'll know that I have a thing for spreadsheets. Mostly, they're an elegant way of organizing data, and of course the spreadsheet was the first killer app for the PC (remember those?) But sometimes it's about the numbers contained therein and the story that they tell.

Moreso than a lot of anecdotal tripe and breathless speculation that constitutes sports writing these days, numbers are able, concisely and precisely, to narrate happenings on the pitch, ice, or court. Statistics is a powerful tool to analyze teams and players, and to suggest means of improving both.

Which is why it is so endlessly infuriating when the language of numbers and statistics are so carelessly misused in the popular media. And more than anything, it is the use of the term ".500" when referring to NHL teams that has me blowing my lid.

WHAT IS .500?

.500 is a decimal number. Mathematical speaking, the trailing zeros are redundant. .5 would be more correct, but gives some people other ideas.

In sport, .500 is used to refer to teams:

that have lost exactly as many games as they have won
whose records are statistically average

In North American sport, this stat is rarely problematic. In baseball and basketball, where rules have legislated ties out of the game, a team with a winning percentage of .500 (also infuriating, as 0.500 is a decimal number, 50% is a percentage) will have won exactly as many games as they have lost. In gridiron, where ties are rare, a 7-7-1 team is rightly called .500 and will have amassed exactly half of the available points.

Only the NHL and other lower divisions in hockey, with the recent abomination of points awarded for overtime and shootout losses, do scribes and fans alike play fast and loose with the .500 truth.

WHAT IS .500 IN HOCKEY?

This is the common use of the term, at least around these parts:

The 12-11-4 Jets — first time this season over .500 — skated vigourously for an hour at the MTS IcePlex today, now looking ahead to their Friday night home game against the Carolina Hurricanes.

Forget for now that the dashed and bolded clause is grammatically incomplete. Instead, look to the record: 12-11-4. If this were 1985, you could say the Jets were over .500. But it's not, and you can't. First off, Dale Hawerchuk is like 100 now while my Jets lovechild Alex Burmistrov is barely 14. Of more importance, the meaning of that third column has entirely changed.

Let's break it down for the uninitiated. The first number, 12, represents wins. Wins of any kind, whether recorded in regulation, overtime, or the shootout (please, Gary, kill it). The second column represents losses in regulation. Period. These two are not created equal.

The final column represents losses in overtime and the shootout, for which a point is awarded. So my beloved Jets (long may they remain) have 12 wins and 15 (11 regulation + 4 extra time) losses. By any of the definitions of .500 given above, they are above it.

The only case one can make is to state that the Jets have earned more than 50% of the points available to them. That's great, but so have all but 7 teams in the 30-team NHL.

This is a term that has outlived its usefulness, at least in referring to hockey. My own preference would be for records to be listed thusly: total wins (OT/SO wins) - total losses (OT/SO losses). Reporters would quickly remember what decade we are in and could easily compute which teams are over .500 by doing the old math exercise with the < symbol (the little snake eats the bigger animal!)

Maybe sports style guides have already proscribed the correct use of .500(hey, it's only been over a decade) and it's only a problem here in Winnipeg where things take a while to catch on (we've only recently completed the Zubaz pants craze). Of course the easy solution would be to do away the unnecessary loser's point and even less necessary shootout.

But that's me. Rant over.

Canada in 2011: All player stats

2011-12-03T12:37:00.001-06:00

The Canadian Soccer Association website seems to have misplaced most of their match and player stats in the recent site overhaul, but that hasn't stopped me from compiling the stats of all players to pull on a Canada shirt in 2011 (thanks, soccerway!)

The Google Spreadsheet itself is more elegant than the hack job blogger does with cut and paste, so go have a look for yourself at all the data.

Collectively, Canada went 6-2-4 (win-draw-loss) in 2011, and hopefully the coming weeks will provide time for some analysis of the team's play as a whole. The team was 1-1-1 in friendlies, and 5-3-1 in competitive matches (1-1-1 in the Gold Cup, 4-0-2 in World Cup qualifying).

Briefly, here are some of the highlights:

A total of 33 players featured for Canada under Stephen Hart in 2011.
Josh Simpson (11 starts, 1 substitute appearance) and Simeon Jackson (9 and 3) were the only Canadians to appear in all 12 Canada matches. Josh Simpson was also the minutes leader with 938, of a possible 1080 (87% of available minutes).
Dwayne De Rosario was the other player to start 11 matches, and played the second most minutes. After Simpson and De Ro, the rest of the minutes top 11 were: Simeon Jackson, Will Johnson, Nik Ledgerwood (!), Julian de Guzman, Kevin McKenna, Andre Hainault, Terry Dunfield, Lars Hirschfeld and David Edgar.
De Rosario and Jackson were the goals leaders in 2011 with 4 each. These totals are made less impressive when you consider that all four of De Ro's goals were penalties, while 3 of Jackson's 4 came against St Lucia. Other players to score in 2011 were Simpson, Iain Hume, Olivier Occean and Tosaint Ricketts (3 each), and Johnson, Hainault and Dunfield (1 each).
Milan Borjan and Lars Hirschfeld each made 5 starts in goal (Kenny Stamatopoulos filled in for the remaining 2 matches). Lars had the edge in minutes, at 495 to 405.
You will not be shocked to learn that Terry Dunfield led the way with 3 yellow cards. Also picking up cautions were Simpson, Johnson, de Guzman, Edgar and Ashtone Morgan (1 each). There were no sendings off.
Tosaint Ricketts seems firmly entrenched in the super-sub role, coming off the bench 8 times, by far the most in that category. Rob Friend was next, with 4 substitute appearances.
Julian de Guzman's minutes total for 2011 was 666.

Again, have a look at the spreadsheet and tell me what you found most interesting in the comments.

November FIFA rankings

2011-11-24T20:47:00.004-06:00

While the FIFA rankings aren't worth the digital paper they're printed on, from a statistical perspective, it still remains heartening when Canada finds itself in a more decent position.

In the most recent edition of the rankings Canada is 72nd, up 11 spots from October. I wouldn't be doing my reporterly duty if I didn't also mention that the team is sandwiched between Austria and China in the table.

It won't be important for a few years now, but here's how CONCACAF stacks up:

Zon. Rnk	Team	Pts	+/- Pos
20	1	Mexico	866	2
34	2	USA	721	0
47	3	Jamaica	609	3
51	4	Panama	585	2
54	5	Honduras	570	3
64	6	Costa Rica	503	-2
69	7	El Salvador	463	13
72	8	Canada	455	11
78	9	Haiti	438	29
83	10	Antigua and Barbuda	418	7

Antigua 10th in CONCACAF, 83rd in the world. Crazy, right?!

Dwayne De Rosario: The Enigma Variations

2011-11-22T20:26:00.004-06:00

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma
- Winston Churchill, October 1, 1939, on Russia

The Enigma Variations represent the finest work of turn of the century English composer Edward Elgar. Each of the variations was composed in honour a different one of his friends or acquaintances. The entire set was said, by Elgar himself, to hint and some unplayed hidden theme, which he would go to his grave without revealing.

[part 1] [part 2]

Dwayne De Rosario is a figure whose diverse performances for his (now many) club sides and for Canada are cause for much discussion and controversy, the reasons for which are equally shrouded in mystery.

DE ROSARIO THE MLS PLAYER

As you should by now have heard, De Rosario is the 2011 MLS Most Valuable Player. By any statistical measure, he had an outstanding individual season, scoring 16 goals and adding 12 assists. The award voters were able to look past the fact that all 3 teams he was a part of failed to make the playoffs, and so should you. MVP awards across the sports world routinely favour the most outstanding player over the far more nebulous 'most valuable'. Dwayne was surely the most outstanding in 2011.

And he's had an outstanding MLS career. My earliest memory of watching any MLS match was the 2001 final, televised on ABC. I was hoping to catch a glimpse of the young Canadian, only to be disappointed that he had started the match on the bench. But he entered as a supersub, scoring the golden goal (remember those?) that delivered the championship to the San Jose Earthquakes.

He is now a 4-time MLS Cup winner, and one of the league's most consistent talents over the last decade. He seems to have developed the outsized attitude to go along with his considerable talent, but I won't begrudge him that. At the MLS level, it is well-earned, and he should rightly feel slighted when teammates are paid far better.

DE ROSARIO THE CANADIAN NATIONAL TEAMER

Also in the last week, De Rosario has placed himself in the conversation with the all-time greats (such as they are) in a Canadian shirt by scoring his 19th international goal, tying former coach Dale Mitchell at the top of the list.

He reached this level in most inspiring fashion: by converting 4 penalties in 2011, each earned not by himself but a teammate.

The enigma of Dwayne De Rosario is that his 10 years of MLS success have not translated to consistent positive play for Canada. He reached the 19-goal plateau, itself not much to get excited about (Landon Donovan has 46 goals for the USA), not so much through consistent greatness, but rather by being the most-capped ever of Canada's attacking players. Being the designated penalty-taker for most of his run has not hurt either.

More often than not his performances on the pitch have been frustrating and underwhelming. In MLS he is a bona fide star, and has the attitude to go with it, and teams are built around him. For Canada, he fails to fit into the team concept and therefore drifts into and out of games. This was much in evidence in the latest round against Puerto Rico, St Kitts, and St Lucia where he was the only attacking player to fail to score from open play, despite playing the most minutes of any Canadian.

Ego is not the problem. If anything, Canada's rosters are full of players that lack for confidence and deliver performances that are far too timid in big moments. Ego men are the ones that take big games by the balls. Think Wesley Sneijder for the Dutch in South Africa.

Somehow, Dwayne's ego seems only to lead to sulking. He seems to revel in drawing attention to his own good deeds (the "one love" scrawled on an undershirt in 2001 is Dwayne's twitter in 2011) but despite being Canada's captain, fails to lead in word or deed.

It remains to be seen whether De Rosario can be made to work within the rigid tactical framework required in international football, where tight timelines prevent the free-flowing chemistry that is possible on the best club teams. It seems to me that Stephen Hart is hardly the man to make this happen.

As a Canadian supporter, one cannot but be excited for Dwayne in MLS and the recognition of the MVP award. Ultimately, though, he will be a big part of deciding whether Canada will reach the Hex next year. Unless something changes, it is hard to imagine a team in which he is the most influential figure winning on a sweaty Panamian evening, or against a hostile Honduran crowd in Montreal.

Though it is inevitable that De Rosario will soon stand alone as Canada's all-time leading scorer, it is not foreordained that the riddle of De Ro and his Canadian performances will ever be unraveled.

WCQ stats: Round 2 player facts and figures

2011-11-19T19:03:00.004-06:00

All player facts and figures from the just-completed round 2 group stage of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying:

player	start	sub	mins	goals	yc
Dwayne De Rosario	6		494	2
Josh Simpson	5	1	459	3
David Edgar	5		450		1
Julian de Guzman	5		450
Simeon Jackson	4	2	369	4
Adam Straith	4		360
Ante Jazic	4		360
Lars Hirschfeld	4		360
Iain Hume	4		296	3
Will Johnson	4	1	279	1
Nik Ledgerwood	3		250
Olivier Occean	2	2	226	3
Terry Dunfield	2	1	225		1
Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault	2	1	189
Andre Hainault	2		180
Kenny Stamatopoulos	2		180
Kevin McKenna	2		180
Mike Klukowski	2		180
Tosaint Ricketts	1	4	166	2
Ashtone Morgan	1	1	109		1
Patrice Bernier	1		81
Atiba Hutchinson	1		69
Nana Attakora		1	20
Marcus Haber		1	8

CONCACAF WCQ Round 3 schedule

2011-11-13T19:43:00.005-06:00

In case you missed it, Canada punched its ticket to the next round of qualifying with a less than convincing effort in a 0-0 draw in St Kitts Friday. While there is still a match to play in round 2, this Tuesday against St Kitts at BMO Field, fans, players and coaches alike can start looking ahead to the schedule for 2012.

Though CONCACAF has not yet officially released a schedule for the next round, the Panamian and Honduran federations have both released the dates for next year's matches. It's easy enough to extrapolate Canada's dates from these lists.

(It should be noted that Panama's release lists the final two matches as occurring in November, but since their dates and days of the week don't agree, I'm going to assume that Honduras' listing, wherein the final matches occur October 12th and 16th, is the correct one).

The complete schedule for Group C:

DATE	HOME	AWAY
8. Jun. 2012	Honduras	Panama
8. Jun. 2012	Cuba	Canada
12. Jun. 2012	Canada	Honduras
12. Jun. 2012	Panama	Cuba
7. Sep. 2012	Cuba	Honduras
7. Sep. 2012	Canada	Panama
11. Sep. 2012	Honduras	Cuba
11. Sep. 2012	Panama	Canada
12. Oct. 2012	Canada	Cuba
12. Oct. 2012	Panama	Honduras
16. Oct. 2012	Honduras	Canada
16. Oct. 2012	Cuba	Panama

Start saving your Air Miles, folks.

St Kitts redux: Job done, but ...

2011-11-12T10:24:00.005-06:00

That was one November 11th I hope to forget.

IN BRIEF

Canada drew St Kitts last night 0-0 in Basseterre, eliminating the St Kitts and Nevians from World Cup qualifying contention, and as a result moving themselves on to the next round.

IN MOVING PICTURES

The CSA produced a highlight package of the match, but it is hard for the word highlight to be taken as anything other than euphemistically. Some of the men involved expressed disappointment with their performance but from my point of view they were far too understated.

WE GOT THE RESULT?

It seems that some are suggesting that Canada set out to play for the draw and ought to be happy with the achievement of qualifying from their round 2 group with a match to play. I am not one of those people.

Call me crazy, but when I see our team being outplayed by an island nation (ok, two islands) of 50,000, I'm not happy. Listen to Hart's interview (linked above) and he'll tell you the same. After the first half, in which Canada gradually asserted itself, it seemed as though it was only a matter of time before a break through. But the second half was an enormous step backwards with Canada constantly under pressure and failing to generate much for scoring chances. (Except for easy breakaway chances that were our so-called Premiership striker could not capitalize upon).

Another axiom trotted out is that there is nothing to be learned from a match against low-ranked opponents like those Canada has faced in this group. I think this is only half-true: we can't learn much about our team by thrashing a collection of amateurs 7-0, but failing to score for 180 minutes against amateurs and semi-pros is inexcusable.

BLAME THE PLAYERS?

To be sure, the players did not do themselves any favours with their performances yesterday. Prior to the match I was mostly excited about the strong lineup Hart had fielded:

Ironically Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault, currently a bit-part player in the Germany's third tier, was one of the few men to deliver a creditable performance.

The back 4 of Ante Jazic, Mike Klukowski, David Edgar and Adam Straith, which I was interested to see in action, is not one I need to see again. Ante Jazic was consistently drawn to far inside, often covering for Klukowski who was playing out of position. This left acres of space down the wing. Kluka made some vital interceptions but also looked downright foolish on a number of crosses leaving men completely unmarked. Only Straith, also playing out of position, played up to expectations.

In the midfield JBB outshone Julian de Guzman and the downright abysmal Will Johnson which is all that needs to be said.

And while Simeon Jackson was wasting chance after chance at forward, Dwayne De Rosario was slacking and sulking and providing miserable corner kicks until Klukowski eventually took over those duties. And Josh Simpson looked dangerous when running at defenders, but chronically unable to deliver a useful pass.

It turns out another pre-match tweet turned out to be far more prescient.

Hello acid reflux.

BLAME THE COACH?

After Canada's embarrassing attempt at qualification for the World Cup in 2008 Dale Mitchell was deservedly out of a job. But it also left the players off the hook for terrible attitudes and even worse on-field production.

I don't mean to let the players off the hook again because for the third match out of 5 this round they were quite poor. But this qualification effort could be over in a flash come June and we'd be remiss if we didn't question whether Stephen Hart is up to the job.

Let's not forget that this is a man with little in the way of coaching credentials. Prior to gaining the national team job Hart coached a team in the Nova Scotia men's league, and then failed to qualifying the U17s for World Cups five consecutive times. Find me an international coach with a more threadbare resume.

He earned the NT job largely on the strength of an interim gig at the 2007 Gold Cup. This was a team that had JDG and Kluka at the peak of their powers and advanced largely on the strength of a stalwart defensive performance, yet didn't win any matches in which they would have been considered underdogs. Subsequent Gold Cups have produced less inspiring results.

And he is clearly out of ideas. His 4-3-3/4-5-1 has looked dangerous at times, but not lately. And last night it left gaping holes in midfield that the defense had to scramble to cover. Hart is reputedly liked by his players but we know how that story goes.

Canada is moving on to a round where two of the opponents will feature squads of mostly superior players. We need to be punching above our weight, but what evidence has Canada provided that they are capable of doing so with Hart in their corner?

I'd be fully on board with Hart being replaced by nearly anyone with a more impressive resume (which wouldn't be hard to find) but fat chance that we see that happening.

REDEMPTION?

Canada needs a good performance on Tuesday at BMO Field. Qualification is assured but the natives are restless. The players and Hart need to prove to the fans, many of the them newly brought into the fold, that the team will be able to compete in the next round. Right now it hardly seems worth my time to follow this team when every sign points to a quick and quiet exit in the next round.

If you want to talk me off the ledge the comments section is all yours.

WCQ week: 5 things to watch

2011-11-05T19:32:00.004-05:00

Canada has two matches remaining in its round 2 preliminary group stage of CONCACAF qualifying for the 2014 World Cup. Both matches are against St Kitts & Nevis: this Friday, November 11th, in Basseterre, and the return fixture on Tuesday, November 15th at BMO Field in Toronto.

Here are 5 things to watch for during these upcoming matches.

1. Will we be able to watch the match in St Kitts?

October's 7-0 win in St Lucia was not broadcast on Sportsnet, nor on TV anywhere in the world. Canadian fans had make do with an improvised audio broadcast by CSA media man Max Bell and Red Nation's Gavin Iday. According to a Voyageurs thread on the matter, Sportsnet, represented by Gerry Dobson and John Molinaro, are investigating whether the local internet infrastracture could support a web stream of the match. If not, expect a repeat performance from Max and Gavin which, in all fairness, was pretty good last time.

2. Can De Rosario finally break Dale Mitchell's goals record?

Dwayne De Rosario has 18 goals in a Canada shirt. Dale Mitchell's record is 19. I get the feeling that this number has become a bit of a distraction for all involved. As much as I am ambivalent about De Ro's play for Canada, it would be a great achievement for the man and some much deserved recognition.

I'd much rather see him do the job now instead of have the chase for 20 linger into the next round of WCQs where turning into Me Ro would be a bit more damaging to the team.

3. Is there an answer to Canada's right back woes?

In this round of qualifying both David Edgar, a centre back, and Nik Ledgerwood, a defensive midfielder, have been used at the right back spot. Neither covered themselves in glory, though Edgar arguably had the better performances. This is a weak spot for Canada and as long as coach Stephen Hart insists that his best option for right back, Andre Hainault (who has not called for these matches), is a central defender, the question marks will remain. Youngster Matt Stinson played a few times on the right side of defense for Toronto this year but I don't expect him to feature in either match as anything other than a midfield substitute.

4. How many goals will Canada score?

This might be primarily of interest to me and a few others with whom I corresponded via this blog and twitter. Before this round began I solicited predictions of Canada's total goals scored over the 6 matches, then weighed the results.

So far this round Canada has managed 14 goals; the median from my 20 or so predictors was 14.5, the median 15.4. The most optimistic fan predicted 25 goals, which seems unlikely at this point.

5. Oh yeah. Will we qualify for the next round?

This is kind of the whole point, and while it would be nothing less than what fans should expect of Canada, nobody should be feeling 100% confident after the team failed to take maximum points from Puerto Rico at BMO Field last month. A single point is all that is required. We all hope this will be secured in Basseterre so Stephen Hart can have the flexibility to consider all his lineup options for the last match of the group on the 15th.

Will you be watching?

Canada roster for St Kitts WCQs

2011-11-03T20:55:00.003-05:00

I'm feeling like a busy guy lately, so I'm keeping it short.

CHANGES from October squad:

IN: Matt Stinson (TFC), Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault (SC Preussen Muenster, 3. Bundesliga), Patrice Bernier (Lyngby BK, Denmark), Mike Klukowski (Manisaspor, Turkey)
OUT: Terry Dunfield (TFC), Iain Hume (Preston North End, England), Kevin McKenna (1. FC Koln, Germany)

The roster:

Player	Pos.	Team	League	Age	Caps	Gls
Lars Hirschfeld	GK	Vålerenga Fotball	Norway	33	37	0
Nik Ledgerwood	FB	SV Wehen Wiesbaden	Germany	26	13	0
Mike Klukowski	FB	Manisaspor	Turkey	30	32	0
Adam Straith	CB	FC Energie Cottbus	Germany	21	8	0
Julian de Guzman	M	Toronto FC	MLS	30	51	4
Matt Stinson	M	Toronto FC	MLS	19	0	0
Will Johnson	M	Real Salt Lake	MLS	24	21	1
Tosaint Ricketts	F	FC Politehnica Timişoara	Romania	24	7	2
Simeon Jackson	F	Norwich City	England	24	23	6
Josh Simpson	M	Manisaspor	Turkey	28	40	3
Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault	M	SC Preußen Münster	Turkey	23	5	0
Ante Jazic	FB	Chivas USA	MLS	35	27	1
Dwayne De Rosario	F	DC United	MLS	33	64	18
David Edgar	CB	Burnley FC	England	24	5	0
Olivier Occean	F	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	Germany	30	20	4
Ashtone Morgan	FB	Toronto FC	MLS	20	1	0
Patrice Bernier	M	Lyngby Boldklub	Denmark	32	45	2
Kenny Stamatopoulos	GK	AIK Stockholm	Sweden	32	6	0
			Goals	41
			Avg age	27.84
			Avg caps	22.5

Allez les rouges!

FC Edmonton most Canadian team in '11, Whitecaps barely register

2011-10-29T12:24:00.007-05:00

In their inaugural competitive season, FC Edmonton have made an emphatic claim on the title of "most Canadian" pro team in Canada for the year 2011.

This title is based upon the highest percentage of minutes played by Canadian (Canada-eligible) players.

A brief summary shows that it wasn't at all a close race:

SUMMARY
TEAM	CDN	Total	Percent
FC Edmonton	23598	30529	77.3%
Montreal Impact	6410	30013	21.4%
Toronto FC	8698	45444	19.1%
Vancouver Whitecaps	2179	37800	5.8%
Totals	40885	143786	28.4%

It is interesting to note that the total percentage of minutes played by Canadians on all Canadian teams of 28.4% is the lowest of the last 4 years (34.0% in 2010), but the total number of minutes played by Canadians of 40885 slightly exceeded last year's total (39357) thanks to the addition of a new team.

I've already reported in detail on the Canadian content for the two NASL teams upon the conclusion of their seasons several weeks ago:

Montreal Impact (21.4%)
FC Edmonton (77.3%)

In addition, you may be interested in comparing this year's report with previous editions:

2010: Montreal Impact are winners (35.4%)
2009: Vancouver Whitecaps (42.1%)
2008: Vancouver Whitecaps (56.4%)

Now for a quick glance at the two MLS squads, who recently ended their seasons without gracing the MLS playoffs:

TORONTO

TORONTO FC
Competition	CDN	Total	Percent
MLS Regular Season	5995	33565	17.9%
Canadian Championship	567	3960	14.3%
Champions League	2136	7919	27.0%
Totals	8698	45444	19.1%

Toronto FC put out a less Canadian squad, statistically, than in 2010. The latter benefited from featuring a regular central back line pairing of Adrian Cann and Nana Attakora, as well as a having Dwayne De Rosario as a fixture in the team. Losing those three to a combination of injury and performance/attitude related trades hurt the 2011 number, but the team should be commended for giving significant competitive minutes to youngsters Matt Stinson, Doneil Henry and especially the recently-capped Ashtone Morgan.

With the possibility of a healthy Cann and a healthier Julian de Guzman in 2012, I'd expect their number to rise.

VANCOUVER

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS
Competition	CDN	Total	Percent
MLS Regular Season	1557	33510	4.6%
Canadian Championship	622	4290	14.5%
Totals	2179	37800	5.8%

What more needs to said about the Whitecaps pitiful showcasing of Canadian talent in 2011? After lobbying MLS to lower it's minimum domestic requirements, the Whitecaps did the bare minimum to meet them. The only Canadians to get into a competitive match for the Whitecaps in 2011 were Kevin Harmse (remember him), the since-traded Terry Dunfield and the mostly injured Russell Teibert.

The team made my information-gathering life much easier by not fielding a single Canadian player after Dunfield's final appearance on July 6th. I'd expect the team to improve on their 5.8% showing next year, if only because they've set such an impossibly low standard, though I'd have to see some further evidence of commitment to Canadian players before I'll really start to believe it.

ANOTHER NUMBER: TOTAL CANADIAN JOBS IN CANADA

For the first time, I also tracked the total number of Canadian players that got into a competitive match for each time. This stat is imperfect as it doesn't count academy players, but does count players who may have made only a single 5-minute appearance over the course of the season. It is easier to track than the number of Canadians on team rosters, since those tend to be in a state of flux.

It is, however, a good way to get a rough idea of Canadians employed in pro soccer in Canada, which is kind of the point.

And in 2011, the total number of Canadians appearing for a Canadian team in a competitive match was 40. Once again, FC Edmonton did the heavy lifting:

Edmonton - 19: Surprenant, Oppong, Hamilton, Rago, Yamada, Kooy, Saiko, Lemire, Porter, Sidra, Duberry, Lam, Saler, Craig, Semenets, Jonke, Cox, Monsalve, LeRoy
Toronto FC - 11: Cordon, Cann, de Guzman, Henry, Morgan, Stinson, Zavarise, Dunfield, Attakora, De Rosario, Makubuya
Montreal - 8: Pizzolitto, Mayard, Ribeiro, Gerba, Gatti, Ilcu, Agourram, Terminesi
Vancouver - 3: Teibert, Dunfield, Harmse

You'll note that the club totals add up to 41, but the total is 40 because Terry Dunfield played for both Toronto and Vancouver in 2011.

This total of 40 is not far off from 2010's number of 37 (Vancouver and Montreal - 13 Canadian players, Toronto - 11).

With Montreal making an MLS move in 2012, it will be interesting to see if more Canadians are playing more minutes in Canada next season.

Canada-Puerto Rico, in brief

2011-10-12T10:17:00.003-05:00

Is this a sentiment all Canadian fans can agree upon?

Once I've seen the match, I'll offer my thoughts in greater detail. You can hardly wait, I'm sure.

St Lucia-Canada take two: The floodgates opened

2011-10-08T10:22:00.005-05:00

I didn't get to see yesterday's game, Canada's third of the preliminary group stage of CONCACAF World Cup Qualiying. Neither did you. Played on a cricket pitch on an island of 170,000 people, there was no video broadcast of the game. Canadian fans were thankful, instead, for a jerry-rigged online radio broadcast by the CSA's Max Bell and Red Nation's Gavin Day.

I was only able to catch 15 minutes of the broadcast, but the announcers seemed to do a good job. And the team seemed to do an even better job, ending the night with a historic 7-0 win. Both the goal total and margin of victory were records for a qualifying match.

Unlike the first two matches, during which Canada's 7 combined goals were spread among 6 players, Canada's strikeforce yesterday was bit greedier. The spoils were divvied up among only 3 players: Simeon Jackson (3 goals), Olivier Occean (2), and Iain Hume (2).

Somewhat unusually, for Canada, all of the goals were scored by players one might reasonably classify as strikers.

Since I can't very well comment on a match I haven't seen, I'll instead celebrate this goal festival by sharing the strike rate stats among Canada's active attacking players.

player	goals	caps	mins	gpg	mpg
Ali Gerba	15	31	1828	0.48	122
Tosaint Ricketts	2	6	85	0.33	43
Dwayne De Rosario	18	63	4703	0.29	261
Simeon Jackson	6	22	1344	0.27	224
Olivier Occean	4	20	997	0.20	249
Iain Hume	5	31	1655	0.16	331
Josh Simpson	3	39	2442	0.08	814
Rob Friend	2	33	1640	0.06	820

Despite the outbursts from Occean, Hume, and Jackson, noted ornithologist Ali Gerba is still the runaway leader when we sort on the goals-per-game (gpg) statistic.

We're all tired of debating whether Rob Friend is a useful player for Canada. I think he is, though this table suggests otherwise. Josh Simpson hasn't always been used in the attacking role where he now features for Canada. One hopes each player will have the chance to pad their goal scoring records.

One of the common explanations for the rotund and enigmatic Gerba's incredible strike rate for Canada is that he only scores against weak opponents. This is easily debunked. The same could somewhat more justifiably be said about goals leader Dwayne De Rosario. However, if we were to apply the same criteria to the rest of the strikers, the entire table would be brought into disrepute. Last night's game was responsible for 50% of Jackson's Canada goals, 50% of Occean's, and 40% of Hume's. Jackson and Hume both also scored against Puerto Rico, certainly a stronger foe than the St Lucians, but also a minnow by any standard.

As a Canada fan, I choose not to turn up my nose at goals scored against a garbage team. Big European teams run up against relative minnows just as often, but nobody would seek to explain away, say, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar's 29 goals for Holland (#2 in the world, and finalists in South Africa, in case you had forgotten) by noting that 7 of them have come against San Marino and Moldova. And even big countries sometimes fail to run up the score against weak teams, as was in evidence in the paltry 1-0 win by the Netherlands over Moldova yesterday.

If we sort the chart by minutes per goal, we have incontrovertible evidence that none of Gerba, De Ro, Jackson, Hume or Occean are the best Canadian striker.

player	goals	caps	mins	gpg	mpg
Tosaint Ricketts	2	6	85	0.33	43
Ali Gerba	15	31	1828	0.48	122
Simeon Jackson	6	22	1344	0.27	224
Olivier Occean	4	20	997	0.20	249
Dwayne De Rosario	18	63	4703	0.29	261
Iain Hume	5	31	1655	0.16	331
Josh Simpson	3	39	2442	0.08	814
Rob Friend	2	33	1640	0.06	820

Nope. It's Tosaint Ricketts!

Here's to seeing the goals come in bunches again, against Puerto Rico at BMO Field on Tuesday. Don't forget to the taste the soup!

2011 Canadian content: FC Edmonton

2011-10-04T13:38:00.004-05:00

A week after the Montreal Impact's NASL existence came to an end, FC Edmonton have closed out their inaugural NASL campaign with an embarrassing 5-0 playoff loss in Fort Lauderdale.

In a purely 'scoreboard' sense, then, Edmonton's season was only marginally more successful than their eastern league-mates. After a fast start, the Eddies tailed off and were forced to go on the road for their lone playoff match, in which they were far too easily dispatched.

This blog, however, tends to view the performances of the Canadian professional teams with an eye to the Canadian players who can potential participate in our national teams.

And in that department, FC Edmonton was a runaway success. The Canadians on the team were a mix of Alberta boys and veteran domestic players from across the country. They gave a shot to guys like Shaun Saiko, Eddy Sidra, Kyle Porter and others who had failed to stick with European or MLS sides.

The team's Canadian content number for 2011 is 77.3%, which is miles ahead of the other 3 Canadian professional teams.

FC EDMONTON
Competition	CDN	Total	Percent
NASL Regular Season	21321	27633	77.2%
Canadian Championship	1474	1913	77.1%
NASL Playoffs	803	983	81.7%
Totals	23598	30529	77.3%

All the details can be viewed in full here.

It is difficult to judge what impact these players will have on the Canadian national teams in the near future. The quality of competition in NASL is uneven. The team was most successful in the early going, which points largely to excellent preparation (the Eddies should be commended for their choice of Dutch coach Harry Sinkgraven after their original coaching staff up and left for Japan).

The youth on the team is encouraging, and a core of FC Edmonton players may well feature in this winter's U23 team that will attempt to qualify for the London Olympics. It is unlikely, barring significant transfer moves, that any of the players on Edmonton's 2011 roster will play a significant role in qualifying for Brazil 2014, but there may be a greater impact down the line.

It certainly can't hurt to have a professional club environment that has starting jobs for 8 or 9 Canadians every week, and Edmonton's management should be commended for their approach in 2011.

Hutchinson out for remainder of 2011?

2011-10-04T08:50:00.003-05:00

From the Netherlands, the latest Atiba injury news (not so recent, in fact, but I had missed it until now).

Published on September 23rd:

'Kleine hoop dat Hutchinson dit jaar kan nog spelen'

PSV'er Atiba Hutchinson werd afgelopen week opnieuw geopereerd aan zijn knie. De middenvelder uit Canada komt hoogstwaarschijnlijk dit kalenderjaar niet meer in actie voor de Eindhovenaren.

"Ik hoop dat hij voor de winterstop weer wedstrijden kan spelen, maar in alle realiteit is het kleine hoop. Niemand treft blaam in deze, de dokter heeft gezegd dat het kan gebeuren", aldus trainer Fred Rutten op de clubsite.

In het Engels

PSV's Atiba Hutchinson again had his knee operated on last week. The Canadian midfielder is most likely out of action for the rest of the calendar year for the Eindhoven side.

"I hope that he will be able to play matches before the winter break, but in reality this is a slim hope. There is nobody to blame for this, the doctor said this sort of thing can happen", says manager Fred Rutten on the club website.

What this means for Canada, of course, is that Atiba will miss the entirety of the current round of World Cup qualifiers. But I don't think anybody will be surprised by this. Canada should be able to overcome his injury against the less than excellent opponents in the group.

If all goes well Hutchinson will be fully recovered, with a half season under his belt, when Canada's next important matches are being played.

* * * * *

Of more immediate concern for Canada is the withdrawal of Kevin McKenna from the Canada squad due to injury. The foot injury is minor, but with his FC Koln's current injury crisis at centre back he was to valuable to risk on international duty. The depth problem shifts to the Canada squad, where youngsters David Edgar and Adam Straith are now the only central defense options.

Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault was called into the squad as a replacement. He doesn't help the centre back situation any, but can provide cover at right back, a big help since neither David Edgar nor Adam Straith will be available for that position now.

* * * * *

If you're been paying attention, you've already heard about #tastethesoup. Now, whether you'll be at BMO Field for the Puerto Rico match, or you'll be watching at home like me, it's time to #sharethesoup. Check the link for details.

2011 Canadian content: Montreal Impact

2011-09-30T13:35:00.003-05:00

The Montreal Impact's final second division season has come (mercifully) to a close, as the team was eliminated from playoff contention in the final week of the NASL season.

While the team is closing the book on their pre-MLS existence, I can close the book on their Canadian content numbers for the 2011 season.

The Impact's Canadian content number, as a percentage of total minutes played by all players, is 21.4%. This is a significant drop-off from last season's figure, when just over a third of minutes were played by Canadians (35.4%).

Several big contributors to the 2010 figure left the scene in the off-season. Adam Braz, a 2010 regular, retired in the off-season to take a front office job. Srdjan Djekanovic, who played over half the season as an injury replacement for keeper Matt Jordan, is now coaching in BC. We saw less of Antonio Ribeiro, Pierre-Rudolph Mayard, and Reda Agourram than we did the year previous.

The only "new for 2011" Canadian was striker Mircea Ilcu.

MONTREAL IMPACT
Competition	CDN	Total	Percent
NASL Regular Season	5870	27703	21.2%
Canadian Championship	540	2310	23.4%
Totals	6410	30013	21.4%

All the details can be viewed in full here.

While FC Edmonton, Toronto FC and Vancouver Whitecaps all have games remaining, Montreal is destined to finish second in this table, barring a huge push from Toronto.

Canada squad for St Lucia, Puerto Rico qualifiers

2011-09-29T11:15:00.004-05:00

Player	Pos.	Team	League	Age	Caps	Gls
Lars Hirschfeld	GK	Vålerenga Fotball	Norway	32	36	0
Nik Ledgerwood	FB	SV Wehen Wiesbaden	Germany	26	11	0
Ashtone Morgan	FB	Toronto FC	MLS	20	0	0
Kevin McKenna	CB	FC Köln	Germany	31	55	10
Adam Straith	CB	FC Energie Cottbus	Germany	21	6	0
Julian de Guzman	M	Toronto FC	MLS	30	49	4
Iain Hume	F	Preston North End	England	27	30	3
Will Johnson	M	Real Salt Lake	MLS	24	21	1
Tosaint Ricketts	F	FC Politehnica Timişoara	Romania	24	6	2
Simeon Jackson	F	Norwich City	England	24	21	3
Josh Simpson	M	Manisaspor	Turkey	28	38	3
Joseph Di Chiara	M	FC Krylia Sovetov	Russia	19	0	0
Ante Jazic	FB	Chivas USA	MLS	35	25	1
Dwayne De Rosario	F	DC United	MLS	33	62	18
David Edgar	CB	Burnley FC	England	24	3	0
Olivier Occean	F	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	Germany	29	19	2
Terry Dunfield	M	Toronto FC	MLS	28	7	1
Kenny Stamatopoulos	GK	AIK Stockholm	Sweden	32	5	0
			Goals	48
			Avg age	28.16
			Avg caps	21.89

Where do they play?

MLS: 6 players
Germany: 4
England: 3
Turkey, Romania, Russia, Sweden, Norway: 1 each

Youth is served

Stephen Hart's hand was, to a certain extent, forced by injuries to some key players. Atiba Hutchinson is out for the remainder of the fall, it seems. Instead of calling a veteran central midfielder (the recently healthy Patrice Bernier perhaps), he opted instead for sight-unseen Vs favourite Joseph di Chiara, a 19-year old (sometimes) playing in Russia.

A recent injury to Mike Klukowski and the mystery absence of Marcel de Jong opened a spot on the left side of defense. 20-year old Ashtone Morgan's recent strong play for TFC netted him the gig.

21-year old Adam Straith also draws in, and much like Andre Hainault who is absent this time, he can provide cover both at CB and RB.

Missing persons

I am counting on some intrepid reporters to uncover the reasons for the absences of Marcel de Jong (turns out he's injured), Andre Hainault, and Milan Borjan. The latter's omission necessitates bringing in down-the-depth-chart-guy Kenny Stamatopoulos as back-up keeper.

My roster

Nobody else cares, but here's how I'd line up the team against St Lucia

Simpson - Jackson - Hume
De Guzman - Dunfield - Johnson
Morgan - Straith - McKenna - Edgar
Hirschfeld

Your thoughts?

Competitive advantage vs the almighty dollar

2011-09-26T15:03:00.004-05:00

Over at the 11, Steven Sandor has an interesting report up from a CSA press conference in Edmonton regarding host cities of home matches for the men's and women's national teams in the next few years.

Predictably, the women's team will play high profile opponents in the cities that will be hosting matches in the 2015 World Cup (I'm looking at you, Winnipeg).

For most readers, fairly or not, the men's team is our major going concern. And here's where it gets interesting:

And, if the Canadian men’s continues on its track in the first round of World Cup qualifying and makes it to the next round, where those games are played will be left entirely up to coach Stephen Hart.
Victor Montagliani, the CSA’s vice president, said that, like never before, the coach will be given power to determine where the qualifiers are played. Ensuring Canada has the best chance to secure three points is the major criteria. So, if Canada is playing a Central American nation in November, it may want to look at staging the game in as cold a place as possible.

“In the past, we haven’t done it that way,” he said. “But, if we need the three points, we’ll play in the Yukon.”

While I don't expect to see any men's matches in Whitehorse, ever, if true this would seem to suggest that the CSA is willing to sacrifice the extra revenue that would be generated from filling up BMO or Saputo in favour of a smaller stadium in a harsher clime.

This willingness is a good thing.

However, I doubt the rather more circumspect Stephen Hart would be so cavalier to suggest a match in Yukon as a potential ace up his sleeve. And there's reason to believe that, in particular, cold weather sites will not be hugely advantageous for the Canadian men.

Here are some points to consider:

Canada is a cold-weather country. However, Canada's footballers hail primarily from southern Ontario and the west coast, and grew up playing April to October. These are not cold weather months. MLS plays a summer season, and Europe's winters are mild. Atiba Hutchinson catches grief from some of the PSV fans for being the only guy on the team to wear gloves at 10 C. As much as playing in -10 C will make the Hondurans uncomfortable, I doubt any of the Canadian team would be relishing the weather either.
As many eastern Canadians are quick to point out, traveling realities come into play as much as climate and crowd support. While it might make sense to play host to Mexico in Winnipeg after a match against the USA in Chicago (yes, I'm suggesting we could possibly make the Hex) it would be less advantageous to play El Salvador in Edmonton at the beginning of a international window, necessitating an extra connecting flight for most players.
There are trade-offs between maximizing home support and minimizing traveling fans. Toronto continues to build a base of die-hard national team supporters, but would be inundated with Central Americans for any key matchup. Give me 8,000 screaming kids and soccer moms packing a stadium in St John's over that any day. But put a match in say, Prince George, where you'd expect few fans, home or away, and you really stand to gain nothing. I don't put much stock in quality of support, but quantity of both home and away fans is key.

I suspect Hart will be conservative in his choices. He is somewhat limited by stadiums, though I suspect some FieldTurf installations will be considered (I am particularly hopeful about Winnipeg's new stadium in that regard).

Would Canada return to St John's? Would they consider a return to short shorts?

And one can only look ahead so far. Canada is likely to be grouped with Cuba, Panama, and Honduras in the next round. I don't think Hart should be concerned about Cuban away support, unless he plans on hosting the match in Miami. Playing Honduras anywhere within reach of the US eastern seaboard is problematic. I don't know much about the Panama expat community.

If I had to guess (and I do) I'd say it will be Cuba in Toronto, Panama in Montreal, and Honduras in western Canada.

But most of all I'm happy to see that the CSA apparently believes competitive factors should come into play.

Confirmed call-ups for October qualifiers

2011-09-26T10:18:00.010-05:00

Like last month, I do enjoy staying on top of the confirmed selections to Canada's national team prior to the roster being released by the CSA. This sort of info leaks out via twitter, club websites, foreign media, or players' relatives on the Voyageurs board.

To date, we have word of two selections. Olivier Occean is one, who backed out of September's matches due to injury after originally having been selected.

The second is the subject of a substantial thread on the Voyageurs forums thanks to a Russian League super-fan who goes by the name of 'uno'. Joseph di Chiara is a 19-year old central midfielder who splits time between the reserves and first team (bench) of RPL side Krylja Sovetov Samara. Canada is in need of CM help with the injury to Atiba Hutchinson, and Hart appears willing to roll the dice with a young kid instead of calling up a less promising, but known, player.

I wouldn't expect JDC to start, but hopefully Hart will find a way to cap-tie him in one of the two matches.

I should also mention that Iain Hume is a very likely selection as he was the star of a recent CSA conference call promoting the matches.

update: Another post in the relevant Voyageurs thread suggests Toronto FC youngster Ashtone Morgan has been called up. No confirmation as yet, but makes sense as Canada's de facto #1 left back, Mike Klukowski, appears to have suffered an injury in his most recent match in Turkey. One hopes that Marcel de Jong will accept the call this time. He missed the September match to be with his wife for the birth of his child.

update #2: Steven Goff of the Washington Post tweets that Dwayne De Rosario will join Canada for the two matches. He will take a break from his assault on the MLS scoring tables to continue his assault on the Canada all-time goal scoring lead.

That Dejan Jakovic, who is a teammate of De Ro at DC United, was not mentioned in the tweet suggests he won't be called.

update #3: This whole exercise will become rather pointless in about 12 hours when the official roster is released (12 pm et Thursday), but we can add a fifth name to our list: Cottbus defender Adam Straith. Adam last played for Canada against Greece in February and can provide cover at centre back and right back. I think the latter is where you are more likely to see him.

My own opinion is that Straith's inclusion means time away for Jaime Peters who recently dropped down a division, going out on loan to Bournemouth.

Pos	Name	Club	Age	Caps	Goals	Source
F	Olivier Occean	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	29	19	2	none
M	Joseph di Chiara	Krylja Sovetov Samara	19	0	0	[link]
D	Ashtone Morgan	Toronto FC	20	0	0	none
F	Dwayne De Rosario	DC United	33	62	18	[link]
D	Adam Straith	Energie Cottbus	21	6	0	[link]

If you have any sourced info about other players called up, leave a note in the comments.

Stat of the day: When the goals go in

2011-09-14T11:12:00.005-05:00

Canada has played 32 matches under Stephen Hart over the course of his two stints as national team head coach. During that stretch the team has scored 41 goals and allowed 36.

What lessons can we draw from the following data?

Minute	For	Against
1 – 15	5	4
16 – 30	9	5
31 – 45	9	11
46 – 60	6	4
61 – 75	5	9
75+	7	3

I'm frankly surprised at how few goals Canada has conceded during the last 15 minutes of a match, while the last 15 of the first half has been a defensive minefield. Canada's scoring has been more evenly distributed, though weighted towards the first half.

By half, it breaks down thusly:

1st half: 23 scored, 20 conceded
2nd half: 18 scored, 16 conceded

The greater concentration of goals, both for and against, in the first half flies in the face of the broader statistical rule of soccer, which shows teams score significantly more often in the 2nd half of matches (a far greater difference than can be explained by playing an extra few minutes of injury time)

Your thoughts? Discuss.

Additional reading:

E. Bittner, A. Nussbaumer and W. Janke, Football fever: Goal distributions and non-Gaussian statistics, arXiv (Jun 1 2006).

" . . . each extra goal encourages a team even more than the previous one: a true sign of football fever."

If you go to Footballscores.com you will be able to find out all the latest football scores from games being played all over the globe. Go check it out now!

Puerto Rico-Canada redux

2011-09-07T10:35:00.004-05:00

For a second consecutive match, a slow-starting Canada team gradually asserted its dominance and won by 3 clear goals, this time a 3-0 decision against Puerto Rico in a steamy Bayamon.

Canada's starting XI: Mike Klukowski (3, back row third from left) successfully completes the coiffure transition from mullet to greaser

Back (L-R): Hainault, Hirschfeld, Klukowski, Simpson, Johnson, Edgar
Front: Dunfield, Hume, de Guzman, McKenna, De Rosario

This photo of the starting eleven is a good place to start. There were four changes to the group that started against St Lucia. One of those changes, it would seem, was a forced move due to injury: Atiba Hutchinson, Canada's best player on Friday, sat out with a sore knee. Terry Dunfield drew in to replace him. Unsurprisingly the diminutive but enthusiastic ball-winner earned a first half yellow card and a precautionary second half substitution.

The other three changes had the appearances of being performance-related:

Whether Hart was disappointed in the play of fullbacks Ante Jazic and Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault against St Lucia, or he was saving Mike Klukowski and David Edgar for the more difficult opponent, or (most likely) both, there was a clear upgrade in defensive wing play.
Simeon Jackson was wasteful of his chances against St Lucia, and was rewarded with a spot on the bench. Canada's formation did not match that of the previous game, but Will Johnson was the man who took up the extra spot and played a strong match in midfield.

Only Dunfield, of the 4 new starters, did not play a good (or better) match.

In retrospect, perhaps the biggest difference between last night and Friday vs St Lucia was that the long-distance strike in the first 10 minutes was saved by Hirschfeld (though the replay showed it probably would have gone wide or onto the post) instead of going in. While Puerto Rico created the most chances in the early going, and enjoyed a succession of corner kicks, there were few serious threats apart from the rangy effort from Delgado.

Still, it was a lackluster-looking effort from Canada for the first 30 minutes. There were few forward thrusts into the final third, and those times when they did get forward the usual result was a wayward shot from distance, leading a characteristically sour Gerry Dobson to wail "Oh, the finishing!"

But Puerto Rico was doing far too much running with greatly diminishing returns. For the last 15 minutes of the 1st half Canada dominated possession -- if you believe Iain Hume they held 85% of the ball during that stretch -- and the chances too. And in the 42nd minute when a Mike Klukowski cross was only partially cleared, Hume coolly slotted home for a 1-0 lead.

The second half featured more of the same. Canada continued to control the ball with both Klukowski and David Edgar getting forward to good effect. The latter was somewhat surprising, given that he is more accustomed to lining up in the centre of the defense. Still, the most dangerous chance in the first half of the period was a Puerto Rico header wide after Edgar naively misplayed a bouncing ball and let his man go free and launch a cross.

Stephen Hart made two substitutions in the half. The first, around 65 minutes, when he brought in Simeon Jackson for Dunfield, who was on a yellow. As a result, Dwayne De Rosario dropped a bit further into midfield (he had been playing up top with Hume) and Will Johnson played more centrally, though he was all over the pitch the whole night (in a good way).

Jackson provided a spark, but the biggest play of the half came after De Rosario was fouled just outside the 18. A number of players stood over the ball, but surely all the Voyageurs expected De Ro to hit it. But a few touches were quickly worked to David Edgar, of all people, who struck a good ball that was only parried, and Jackson clinically deposited the rebound. De Rosario, according to some, was not happy.

The goal came just moments after Josh Simpson was replaced by Tosaint Ricketts, and the latter was the beneficiary of some good ball movement and tired Puerto Rico defending, putting Jackson's pass into the back of the next just before the final whistle.

All goals can be viewed here.

Though the commentary from Gerry Dobson and Craig Forrest dwelled on the negative, this was a more positive performance than Friday's effort against St Lucia.

Though Puerto Rico is not a great team by any stretch of the imagination, they were organized and tactically disciplined. Like Stephen Hart, I viewed this match as Canada's toughest test, and the team escaped unscathed with a relatively workmanlike three goal win. Add to that the fact that they did it without their best player (Hutchinson) under hot and humid conditions and you have the makings of a classic road win.

The problems were much the same as against St Lucia, though less glaring: turning a big possession advantage into chances, and turning those chances into goals, as well as a few worrying moments when strikers found space in the middle of Canada's defense. Nothing, though, that can't be fixed, or at least so one would hope.

Canada is top of the group with 6 points (St Kitts is second with 4 after defeating St Lucia away 4-2), which is no less than anyone should have expected.

Player ratings (out of 10)

Lars Hirschfeld - 7: He made the one save that he needed to early, and otherwise looked comfortable.

David Edgar - 7: This would have been an 8, if not for a misplay that almost led to a Puerto Rico goal. I was surprised at how comfortable and how useful he was getting forward.

Kevin McKenna - 6.5: Craig Forrest called him the man of the match, but on more than one occasion a Puerto Rico forward had a free header close to goal.

Andre Hainault - 6.5: See above.

Mike Klukowski - 6.5: He is clearly shaking off the rust due to the strike-delayed start to his Turkish season. He was fine defensively and occasionally got forward to good effect, but too often stalled in attack.

Terry Dunfield - 5.5: He is fine against this level of opposition. He knows where to be to stall the opponent's attack, and makes the safe pass. But he is always a danger to be sent off, and lacks the ability to make the decisive pass.

Will Johnson - 7.5: At times it was difficult to know where he was positioned because he was involved in the play all over the pitch, including tracking back to make some critical tackles. He really shone once he pushed more into the middle when Dunfield was taken off.

Julian de Guzman - 7: His most obvious contribution to the match was a series of shots well over the bar, but this was a more confident and competent de Guzman. Hopefully he is slowly on the rebound from two years of bad form.

Dwayne De Rosario - 5.5: The guy goes all game giving up the ball on poor touches, taking the air out of attacks and drifting in and out of the game, and then goes and wins a free kick that ends up in the net. Go figure.

Josh Simpson - 6: The Puerto Ricans clearly had done their homework as their right back Rivera largely (and often illegally) marked Josh out of the game. Had one moment where a bit of fancy footwork sent him in on goal, but he lost the ball with a poor final touch.

Iain Hume - 7: I think the guy is overrated by the fans because he is an effort player (the old Leafs fan syndrome) but he was full of running and besides his goal was involved some other good buildup play.

SUBS - 8: Both Jackson and Ricketts scored a goal, so there's not much to criticize. Here's a stat though (beware of small sample sizes!): with 2 goals from 6 matches, Ricketts' strike rate of 0.33 goals/game is better than any Canadian not named Gerba. And his 1 goal every 43 minutes (2 goals in 85 minutes total) is off the charts. Of course we're dealing with very little play overall, but for the first time I am considering the possibility that he can be a useful player for Canada instead of just a bit of roster filler.

Self-indulgent gambling update: Nobody was more excited about Rickett's late goal than I was. I put money on the over (+/- 2.5 goals) and come out a few Euros richer.

Group D table:

Teamv · d · e	Pld	Pts
Canada	2	6
Saint Kitts and Nevis	2	4
Puerto Rico	2	1
Saint Lucia	2	0

Next match: 7 October 2011 at St Lucia

Canada - Puerto Rico Match thread

2011-09-06T16:26:00.009-05:00

CONCACAF WORLD CUP QUALIFYING SECOND ROUND GROUP D

CANADA (1-0-0) at PUERTO RICO (0-1-0)

6 September 2011

Estadio Loubriel, Bayamon, Puerto Rico
8 pm et / 7 pm ct / 5 pm pt

LIVE on Rogers Sportsnet One
(check local listings for tape-delayed broadcast on regional Sportsnet channels)

Webstream (Spanish commentary)

CANADA XI: Hirschfeld, Klukowski, McKenna (c), Hainault, De Guzman, Hume, Johnson, Simpson, Edgar, Dunfield, De Rosario

The CSA match tracker gives the positions. We'll see:

Hirschfeld

Edgar - Hainault - McKenna - Klukowski

Johnson - De Guzman - Dunfield

Hume - De Rosario - Simpson

It's unfortunate if Hutchinson is still suffering from his injury. I wonder about Simeon Jackson's omission as well. Glad to see De Rosario in a more advanced role, where losing possession as often as he does won't be such a problem.

Canadian Press: Canadian men wary of Puerto Rico

Despite the ranking, Canadian head coach Stephen Hart says the Puerto Rico could pose the biggest threat to his team.

"I think if you look at the team, they have about six or seven players that play at one club," said Hart at the team's hotel prior to Monday's training session. "That means the working relationships are very good."

Like the rest of us, Stephen Hart views this match as potentially the most difficult of the group. The Puerto Rico team, though under a new coach, Jeaustin Campos, will be familiar with each other and present a well-drilled and organized challenge to Canada's attack.

The bookies don't share Hart's caution. Bwin has Canada has heavy favourites, and will pay 10.5 to 1 for a Puerto Rico win (a Canada bet pays 1.20x).

Canada-St Lucia redux

2011-09-04T18:03:00.005-05:00

Canada has won its first match of the World Cup 2014 qualification campaign, getting past St Lucia 4-1 on Friday. If you're reading my blog this is hardly news to you so I feel I can spare you a blow-by-blow account of the proceedings.

Will Johnson (8) scores Canada's 4th goal on a set up by Tosaint Ricketts (9)

In short, the match played out as follows: Canada gets off to a hot start, and are immediately rewarded with Josh Simpson scoring a deflected goal in the opening 6 minutes. The good vibes are short-lived, however, as St Lucia equalled minutes later. On their first, and one of very few, forays into the Canada half, defender Kevin McKenna screens Lars Hirschfeld's view of a long-range shot, which finds the back of the net.

For the remainder of the half, Canada dominated possession, but failed to threaten the St Lucia goal, defended as it was in true park-the-bus style by all 11 of the islanders.

The second half began similarly, but when Ante Jazic finally provided Canada with a good cross, a St Lucian defender handled and Dwayne De Rosario scored his third penalty for Canada in consecutive matches to give the reds the lead.

From this point Canada was off and running. They were a bit cavalier in wasting a number of quality chances, but did eventually convert again through a great bit of passing that eventually had Atiba Hutchinson springing Josh Simpson, who coolly converted for his second of the match.

Under intense pressure, and a man down, St Lucia conceded again when Tosaint Ricketts headed down a cross to Will Johnson, who volleyed home.

All goals and highlights can be viewed here.

The prevailing narrative, if you go by the fan board and twitter, is that Canada did not win the match convincingly enough. (This is the briefer narrative, if you go by mylocal paper.) For some, perhaps under the influence Holland's 11-0 thrashing of European minnow San Marino earlier in the day, the relatively small margin reflected poorly on Canada and cast doubt on the team's future chances against a stronger opponent. These same fans will conveniently have forgotten that Italy, another world power, managed only a 1-0 win over another team of part-timers, the Faroe Islands.

A poster on the Voyageurs boards provides some useful context:

Everyone keeps talking about how Mexico, Honduras et al would have crushed St. Lucia 8 or 9 nil. In the first round of 2010 qualifying Mexico only beat Belize 2-0 in front of 50,000+ supporters in the States, Honduras tied Puerto Rico away and the States only beat Barbados 1-0 away. Were any of them panicking after the first round? No, and we got a much better result Friday than any of these other teams.

(As an example of the divergent schools of opinion on the match, this quote is taken from a thread titled "Canada's performance was total garbage")

I myself have said on a few occasions that the manner of victory barely matters, as long as wins are the result. This is not the season for moral victories. Canada are first in the group with 3 points and a +3 goal differential, after St Kitts drew Puerto Rico in the other match.

But there were some worrying trends. The first half exposed some weaknesses that were also on display at this summer's Gold Cup, namely a great deal of possession without generating much for chances. A great deal of this can be credited to St Lucia's strategy, once they had recorded their goal against the run of play, of getting 11 men behind the ball without thinking of attacking. This sort of bunker defending does not require a great deal of skill or tactical know-how, but rather a collective doggedness and superior fitness. When successful, an opponent will look out of sorts (think Spain, vs Holland in 2010 World Cup final, or any of Greece's opponents in Euro 2004). St Lucia were successful until they appeared to have spent themselves at about 55 minutes, after which point they were overwhelmed by the Canada attack.

A more worrying signal was the number of chances that were wasted. Against St Lucia, and likely against Canada's other 1st round opponents, the team will create enough chances that eventually a few will go in. But looking ahead, they can't expect to succeed with so low a scoring percentage against the likes of Honduras or Panama, let alone Mexico.

Rob Friend, not called for this match, gets some deserved criticism for failing to score at a good rate for Canada, but some of the other forwards on the team have been just as poor. To wit:

Player	Caps	G	Mins	G/GM	Mins/G
Ali Gerba	31	15	1828	0.48	122
Dwayne De Rosario	61	18	4559	0.30	253
Olivier Occean	19	2	907	0.11	454
Simeon Jackson	20	2	1245	0.10	623
Iain Hume	29	2	1475	0.07	738
Josh Simpson	37	3	2268	0.08	756
Rob Friend	33	2	1640	0.06	820

* Players listed in italics were part of Canada squad for St Lucia match.

Only Gerba and De Rosario have an acceptable strike rate for attacking players. And while some players have played significant minutes at less attacking positions (especially Hume and Simpson) these poor strike rates are inexcusable. They reflect a lack of technical ability in the final third and a pathological lack of finishing.

With no young strikers in the pipeline, hopes will have to ride on three possible scenarios, each less likely than the last:

Simeon Jackson, without the benefit of a regular starting position for his club team, will have to work himself into the sort of form he displayed in League One and the Championship in previous seasons, and carry it over to the national team.
Canada will have to continue to earn one penalty a game, dutifully converted by Dwayne De Rosario.
Ali Gerba will have to stay away from the buffet table long enough to get into reasonable playing shape and return to the centre of Canada's attack. Braaap!

Time to start praying.

Another point of much discussion was the play of Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault at right back. Let me begin by stating that JBB is not a defender, let alone a right-sided player. He is a central midfielder getting regular minutes in the 3.Bundesliga, but hardly first XI material for Canada. He is held responsible, at least in part, for the St Lucia goal against and gave an otherwise forgettable performance, save for a good low ball in that Dwayne De Rosario failed to finish (see!)

Canada's depth at right back is worrisome, as Jaime Peters has not shown he is a capable international defender, Paul Stalteri has retired, if not officially then at least cosmically, Adam Straith seems for the time being not to be in Hart's plans, and the coach seems not to prefer Andre Hainault at his everyday position.

I am waiting to pass further judgment until I see Stephen Hart's selections for Tuesday's match against Puerto Rico. Combined with the start of Ante Jazic at left back, it seems likely that Hart chose to field a more experimental group against the weaker opponent while resting a few of his first-choice players. I'd expect to see Klukowski at left back and Peters, perhaps on his last Canada legs, given the chance on the right.

Of course Canada's best right back is already in the squad. His name is Atiba Hutchinson. But because he is far and away our best midfielder as well, I doubt you'll see him filling that role for Canada, though I would start him there against a much stronger opponent (USA, say, or Mexico).

It is a dangerous game to read the entrails of this match too closely for portents of this team's future. First, engaging in such pagan ritual puts the heavenly salvation of your immortal soul in serious peril. Moreover, as the poster above notes, stronger teams than Canada have failed to impress against teams as weak, or weaker, than St Lucia.

Puerto Rico, theoretically a stronger opponent, should pose a stiffer test, though their 0-0 draw at St Kitts does little to strike fear into the cold heart of the Canadian fan. The game will be played this Tuesday under hot and humid conditions which were not to Canada's advantage at the Gold Cup. Again, all that really matters is getting a win, but it will be interesting to see if Canada plugs its lineup holes and improves upon the weaknesses that were on display on Friday.

At the risk of being self-indulgent, let me report on my betting exploits in this match. So confident was I of a Canada victory that I bet the entire contents of my bwin account on a win. I am now a full €0.27 richer.

As a further example of my self-indulgence allow me to post a picture of my supper. I am rather proud of it.

Good eats.

If the good Lord didn't want every meal to be grilled, why did he create propane?

Soccer: A major sport in Canada?

2011-09-03T13:23:00.002-05:00

The Winnipeg Free Press extensively reports Canada's first World Cup match:

Did your local rag do better?

On fan expectations

2011-09-01T11:01:00.004-05:00

There should few Canadian supporters, if they are being honest with themselves, who will have great worries about Canada's ability to progress from this preliminary group stage of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. Any pessimism is more instinctive, a residue from years of failure, than logical.

It should go without saying (but I'll repeat it anyway) that Canada's opponents for this round are not at our level. Despite Canada's disappointing performances on the world stage, St Lucia, St Kitts and Puerto Rico are teams we should comfortably beat.

Canada's players and coaches seem to be saying the right things and avoiding overconfidence. This excellent compendium of interviews conducted by Red Nation Online features head coach Stephen Hart, as well as forwards Iain Hume and Tosaint Ricketts, defender Andre Hainault, midfielder Dwayne De Rosario and keeper Milan Borjan. To a man they point out the need to just get results. Nobody gives voice to the notion that they'd love to put 4 or 5 goals past St Lucia this Friday at BMO, even if they might be thinking so.

And that's just fine. Players and coaches need to balance optimism with motivation and heady expectations undermine a coach's ability to leverage greater effort from the team.

But fans deserve the opportunity to engage in speculation and, dare we say it, cheerful confidence about margins of victories, not just hoping to scrape by against truly terrible soccer teams. Canadian fans have been conditioned to expect the worse, but I am curious how many are able to balance that pessimism against the sheer magnitude of the gulf in talent and experience between Canada and its opponents this round than the FIFA rankings would suggest.

Country	FIFA	ELO
Canada	102	58
St Kitts	122	159
Puerto Rico	144	188
St Lucia	184	181

The Elo ratings present a more accurate picture of the strength of national teams.

In order to test the confidence of Canadian fans I've been soliciting, via twitter and on this blog, predictions about the total number of goals Canada will score in this round of matches. My sample size is hardly healthy, but surely enough to engage in some unscientific analysis.

My expectation was that predictions would follow a fairly simple bell curve distribution centred around 15 or 16 goals, and falling off to either side with possibly some high-number outliers. This turned out not to be the case.

Rather than using an inelegant workaround to construct a histogram with OpenOffice, I used an even more inelegant low-tech workaround

According to my research, then, the pessimists still dominate. Although nobody predicted Canada would score fewer than 9 goals (an average of 1.5 / game) fully two-fifths of respondents offered a prediction of 12 or less (2 goals / game).

Is this reasonable? Who's to say. I figure myself to be a reasonable guy, and I figured the most reasonable prediction was in the range of 15-17 goals, somewhere between 2.5-3 goals per match. Yet this prediction was the least favoured by Canadian fans, proving perhaps that we are an immoderate bunch.

At least the pessimism of the leftmost column was tempered somewhat by some more enthusiastic speculating at the other end. The maximum prediction was 25 goals, requiring an average of more than 4 goals / game. Canada has scored more than 4 goals in a match only 3 times, once against USA in the 1950s, and friendlies against China and Malaysia in the 80s and 90s respectively. Such a sustained scoring outburst would be unprecedented.

But that's just the thing. The stretch of matches ahead for Canada is a new deal entirely. Never before has our national team faced so many mediocre opponents consecutively. Canada tomorrow will face an opponent, St Lucia, who are 20 to 1 underdogs.

As an aggregate, at least, our conflicting impulses are cancelled out. Depending on which measure of central tendency you favour, Canadian fans together are expecting 15.4 (mean) or 14.5 (median) total goals.

Whatever your orientation, whether hypercautious (9 goals? Really? Against these teams?) or ebullient, make sure it translates to passion for the team. In the stands, if you're so fortunate to live within reasonable distance of BMO Field, or other more local expressions of your Canadian fandom.

Because we'll need it. Not now, really, but when Honduras and Panama come calling.

Canadian soccer groupthink: An experiment

2011-08-29T13:51:00.003-05:00

Being part of an experiment: better or worse than being a Canadian soccer fan?

In advance of Canada's six-match first round (officially CONCACAF's second round) of World Cup qualifying, I'm conducting to an experiment to determine whether the aggregate of Canadian soccer supporters functions as an all-knowing and predictive hive mind.

The data point I've chosen to focus on is the total number of goals scored by Canada over the six matches: 2 each against St Lucia, St Kitts and Puerto Rico.

If you'd like to be a guinea pig (or lab rat) for me, tweet your guess (just the number is fine) to me @o_o_t, or if you haven't joined the twittersphere, leave a comment to this post. Just don't do both with different handles or I'll be royally confused.

Changes to Canada roster for St Lucia, Puerto Rico

2011-08-28T21:35:00.006-05:00

Predictably enough, Stephen Hart has been forced to make changes to his original roster for the upcoming World Cup qualifiers due to injuries to 3 of his selections.

The injured players are DC United central defender Dejan Jakovic, Wehen Wiesbaden midfielder/right back Nik Ledgerwood, and on-form striker Olivier Occean, of Greuther Furth in Germany.

The replacements offer an injection of youth in the form of Burnley defender David Edgar, who earned good reviews for his first full match of the season this past weekend, St Johnstone striker (and ex-Whitecap) Marcus Haber, and Preussen Muenster midfielder Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault, and oft-called but seldom-used utility midfielder.

A lot of Canadian fans have been clamouring for David Edgar to play a bigger role within the squad for years, even if Jakovic-McKenna is likely the best central pairing we can offer. Looking at the squad selected, a pairing of Andre Hainault and Kevin McKenna is the most likely, though I'd like to see a back four of (L-R) Klukowski - Edgar - McKenna - Hainault.

The most disappointing development is the injury to Occean, who was been scoring at nearly a goal-a-game clip in the 2.Bundesliga. It will be interesting to see who Hart selects as the target forward if he sticks with a 4-3-3/4-5-1 with Simeon Jackson and Josh Simpson on the wings.

Nik Ledgerwood would likely have been looking to stake his claim for the right back position. Now we are likely to see Jaime Peters start in that spot. He is not the solution there, and really needs a career re-set overall. As I noted above, I prefer Hainault at right back, as he fills the role quite well for Houston in MLS, but I'm afraid Stephen Hart will feel differently.

The changes probably weaken the team somewhat, and leave the group with less experience overall, but Hart should still have more than enough at his disposal to take care of these very winnable matches.

Canada roster for September WCQs

2011-08-25T11:45:00.005-05:00

The CSA today released the 19-man roster that will take on St Lucia and Puerto Rico this September in Canada's first matches towards qualification for Brazil 2014.

Stephen Hart will hold a press conference later today to answer questions about the selections and the upcoming matches. For now, here are the players selected and a few of my thoughts thereupon:

#	Player	Pos.	Team	League
1	Lars Hirschfeld	GK	Vålerenga Fotball	Norway
2	Nik Ledgerwood	D	SV Wehen Wiesbaden	Germany
3	Mike Klukowski	M	Manisaspor	Turkey
4	Kevin McKenna	CB	FC Köln	Germany
5	André Hainault	D	Houston Dynamo	MLS
6	Julian de Guzman	M	Toronto FC	MLS
7	Terry Dunfield	M	Toronto FC	MLS
8	Will Johnson	M	Real Salt Lake	MLS
9	Tosaint Ricketts	M/F	Politehnica Timişoara	Romania
10	Simeon Jackson	F	Norwich City	England
11	Josh Simpson	M	Manisaspor	Turkey
12	Ante Jazic	D	Chivas USA	MLS
13	Atiba Hutchinson	M	PSV Eindhoven	Netherlands
14	Dwayne De Rosario	F	DC United	MLS
15	Dejan Jakovic	D	DC United	MLS
16	Olivier Occean	F	Greuther Furth	Germany
17	Iain Hume	M/F	Preston North End	England
20	Jaime Peters	D	Ipswich Town FC	England
22	Milan Borjan	GK	Sivasspor	Turkey

The biggest surprise inclusions are Atiba Hutchinson and Ante Jazic. Atiba is Canada's best player, but Hart had earlier cast doubt upon his health readiness for these matches. Jazic is 35 years old and last played for Canada in January 2010. He has played only 2 matches for Canada since 2007, but is a solid MLS performer.
Possibly the biggest omission is Augsburg's Marcel de Jong. He is the only Canadian getting regular minutes in a big 4 league. Unless there is an injury, the most likely explanation is that he feels he needs to establish himself in the first team.
I don't think anybody is excited about Canada's depth at right back, but for now you'd have to think it's Nik Ledgerwood's job to lose. Hart seems to prefer Jaime Peters as a sub, and I can't say I disagree.
There is a school of thought that Canada should use these easily winnable matches to work some younger players into the system. Hart must not share that philosophy, or is at least waiting until the later games when advancement has more or less been assured. Backup keeper Milan Borjan is the youngest of the players selected at 23 years old. Peters and Tosaint Ricketts are both 24.
This is very much a first choice squad. If Canada advances to the hex, the key players are likely among the 19 selected (with the exception of De Jong).
By league/country: MLS (7 players), Turkey, England, Germany (3 each), Netherlands, Romania, Norway (1 each).

I'll update with any pertinent info from Hart's interviews later today.

Confirmed call-ups for September qualifiers

2011-08-16T21:31:00.006-05:00

The list will grow as word leaks out from a variety of sources about players being selected for Canada's matches against St Lucia (home) and Puerto Rico (away) on September 2nd and 6th respectively.

Pos	Name	Club	Age	Caps	Goals	Source
F	Olivier Occean	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	29	19	2	[link]
M/F	Dwayne De Rosario	DC United	33	60	17	[link]
D	Dejan Jakovic	DC United	26	11	0	[link]
F	Iain Hume	Preston North End	27	28	2	[link]
GK	Lars Hirschfeld	Valerenga Oslo	32	34	0	[link]

If you have any sourced info about other players called up, leave a note in the comments.

Canada WCQs at home: All-time host cities

2011-08-10T12:29:00.007-05:00

As a follow-up to Monday's post about home field advantage in World Cup qualifying, here's a (mostly) just-the-numbers look at how Canada has fared in the different cities that have hosted at least one WCQ match:

EDMONTON

City Date Opponent GF GA result wins 5

Edmonton 2008-10-15 Mexico 2 2 draw draws 3

Edmonton 2004-09-04 Honduras 1 1 draw losses 1

Edmonton 2000-07-16 T & T 0 2 loss points 18

Edmonton 1997-10-12 Mexico 2 2 draw win % 56%

Edmonton 1997-06-01 Costa Rica 1 0 win pts % 67%

Edmonton 1996-10-13 Cuba 2 0 win

Edmonton 1996-10-10 Cuba 2 0 win

Edmonton 1996-08-30 Panama 3 1 win

Edmonton 1993-07-31 Australia 2 1 win

KINGSTON

City Date Opponent GF GA result wins 2

Kingston 2004-06-16 Belize 4 0 win draws 0

Kingston 2004-06-13 Belize 4 0 win losses 0

points 6

win % 100%

pts % 100%

MONTREAL

City Date Opponent GF GA result wins 1

Montreal 2008-06-20 St Vincent 4 1 win draws 0
Montreal 2008-06-09 Honduras 1 2 loss losses 1

points 3

win % 50%

pts % 50%

ST JOHN'S

City Date Opponent GF GA result wins 2

St John's 1985-09-14 Honduras 2 1 win draws 0

St John's 1972-08-20 USA 3 2 win losses 0

points 6

win % 100%

pts % 100%

TORONTO

City Date Opponent GF GA result wins 4

Toronto 2008-08-20 Jamaica 1 1 draw draws 4

Toronto 2000-11-15 Mexico 0 0 draw losses 2

Toronto 1993-05-09 Mexico 1 2 loss points 16

Toronto 1992-11-01 Jamaica 1 0 win win % 40%

Toronto 1985-08-17 Costa Rica 1 1 draw pts % 53%

Toronto 1980-10-18 Mexico 1 1 draw

Toronto 1972-08-24 Mexico 0 1 loss

Toronto 1968-10-17 USA 4 2 win

Toronto 1968-10-06 Bermuda 4 0 win

Toronto 1957-06-22 USA 5 1 win

VANCOUVER

City Date Opponent GF GA result wins 6

Vancouver 2004-10-13 Costa Rica 1 3 loss draws 3

Vancouver 2004-08-18 Guatemala 0 2 loss losses 4

Vancouver 1997-11-09 USA 0 3 loss points 21

Vancouver 1997-04-13 Jamaica 0 0 draw win % 46%

Vancouver 1997-04-06 El Salvador 0 0 draw pts % 54%

Vancouver 1996-11-03 El Salvador 1 0 win

Vancouver 1993-04-18 Honduras 3 1 win

Vancouver 1992-11-15 Bermuda 4 2 win

Vancouver 1992-11-08 El Salvador 2 3 loss

Vancouver 1988-10-15 Guatemala 3 2 win

Vancouver 1980-11-01 USA 2 1 win

Vancouver 1976-10-10 Mexico 1 0 win

Vancouver 1976-09-24 USA 1 1 draw

VICTORIA

City Date Opponent GF GA result wins 2

Victoria 1985-04-20 Guatemala 2 1 win draws 0

Victoria 1985-04-13 Haiti 2 0 win losses 0

points 6

win % 100%

pts % 100%

WINNIPEG

City Date Opponent GF GA result wins 1

Winnipeg 2000-10-09 Panama 1 0 win draws 1

Winnipeg 2000-06-11 Cuba 0 0 draw losses 0

points 4

win % 50%

pts % 67%

ALL-TIME HOME

wins	23
draws	12
losses	7
points	81
win %	55%
pts %	64%

As always, it is a bit of a chore to comb through the stats on the CSA site. A number of matches played in Kingston, Jamaica, were listed as being played in Kingston, Ontario. Swangard Stadium seemed to move from Burnaby, BC to Vancouver almost weekly. But I am fairly confident of the numbers posted here.

I promised to refrain from reading too deeply into these numbers. The main reason is because they stretch over a period during which Canada's strength within CONCACAF has varied significantly. However, some items of note:

Only Edmonton, Toronto, and Vancouver have hosted more than 2 matches. Of these, Edmonton has the best record (56% winning percentage, 67% of available points). Vancouver (46% / 54%) and Toronto (40% / 53%) have done worse. Vancouver has hosted the most matches with 13 (Toronto 10, Edmonton 9).
Canada's all-time percentages (55% winning; 64% of points) compare favourably with CONCACAF's numbers over the last two WCQs (57% / 63%). However, a disproportionate number of wins came earlier in our history. We all know that our record is much worse in recent years.
Canada is unbeaten in WCQs in 4 cities: Kingston, St John's, Victoria and Winnipeg.
Canada's home record against the region's power, Mexico, is 1 win, 4 draws and 2 losses. The only 2 losses were in Toronto.

Any further interpretation of these stats is welcome in the comments.

On home field advantage

2011-08-08T11:51:00.004-05:00

Much was made, a few weeks back, of the decision to host all of Canada's round 2 World Cup qualifying matches at BMO Field in Toronto. The outrage from the rest of Canada (as much as that can be used to describe a story that only the most hardcore of soccer fans paid any attention to) was as predictable as the backbiting from the partisans living within the golden horseshoe. Reasons for staying in Toronto offered by defenders of the choice, and by head coach Stephen Hart, tended to focus on the logistical (travel considerations and pitch availability) as well as the desire to see the development of a pro-Canadian crowd.

This past Friday, I had the pleasure of watching the Canadian Football League's Winnipeg Blue Bombers dismantle the Edmonton Eskimos in front of a loud and sold-out crowd at CanadInns Stadium. In the pointyball version of the sport, crowd support can offer a tangible tactical advantage: making noise while the home team is on defense can disrupt the communication of the visitors' offense, leading to delays, penalties, and confused plays. In soccer, however, any lift provided by the crowd is of a purely emotional nature.

While I agree it is imperative that Canada is supported by a loud and boisterous pro-Canada audience during the upcoming rounds of World Cup qualifying, it is worth looking at how important it is to defend points at one's home field. The axiom regularly trotted out is that in qualifying, you need to win your home matches and take what you can get on the road. The numbers would appear to bear that out. Consider the stats from the semifinal and hex rounds of qualifying for 2006 and 2010 in CONCACAF:

Competition	W	D	L	Winning %*	Points %
CONCACAF 2010	41	11	12	64.06%	69.79%
CONCACAF 2006	34	13	19	51.52%	58.08%

* Winning percentage here refers to the percentage of matches won. Period. Points percentage tallies the percentage of points gained by the home team as a percentage of the theoretical maximum.

Particularly in qualifying for Germany 2010, the home team held an overwhelming advantage, and Canada's failure to defend home turf (we earned only 2 of a possible 9 home points) was our ultimate undoing.

These numbers deserve some context. Combining the semifinal and hex rounds of qualifying for 2006 and 2010, and comparing to some domestic pro leagues reveals the following:

Competition	W	D	L	Winning %	Points %
CONCACAF WCQ	75	24	31	57.69%	63.85%
Eredivisie 2010-11	160	70	75	52.46%	60.11%
EPL 2010-11	179	111	90	47.11%	56.84%
MLS 2010	116	63	66	47.35%	55.92%
Bundesliga 2010-11	141	63	102	46.08%	52.94%

With data enough to provide statistical significance, we are able to conclude that home field advantage is stronger in CONCACAF qualifiers than in most other competitions.

It would be foolish, however, to ascribe this home dominance to intimidating home atmospheres. For one, of the other competitions the league with the most enthusiastic diehard support, Germany's Bundesliga, had the poorest home records of all. Second, it is easy to forget that only a handful of Latin American cauldrons offer intimidating crowds; the likes of Cuba, Jamaica, Suriname, USA, and especially Canada have typically offered fairly tepid home support.

A more likely factor is the competitive balance of the competition. The Bundesliga is famously even, with few obvious weak sisters and many wealthy teams. The MLS, with its salary cap, also crows about its parity. These numbers serve to debunk the myth, at least for the year 2010, that it's a tough league in which to win on the road. On the other hand, even the final two rounds of CONCACAF qualifying includes teams with a wide gulf of quality between them: Mexico and Suriname, USA and Cuba, etc.

The lesson here? Home field in World Cup qualifying provides inherent advantages besides vocal support, and if Canada squanders these the Brazil dream will be over soon enough.

Obviously Canadian supporters would do well to get out and support their team, and to that end, should start buying up tickets for the three home games in Toronto this fall.

Know your enemy #3: The Sugar Boys

2011-08-03T10:44:00.004-05:00

ST KITTS AND NEVIS

Pop: 50,314

Canadian city of comparable size: Shawinigan, QC (49,236)

Did you know? SK&N has their own little separatist problem, with the N having pushed for independence from the SK for some time now.

National team nickname: "The Sugar Boys"

FIFA ranking: 122nd

Best ever FIFA ranking: 108th (July 2004)

ELO ranking: 158 (as of 3 August 2011)

National team coach: Lester Morris

HOW THEY GOT HERE:

The Sugar Boys were among the top 24 sides in CONCACAF as of March 2011 and were thus exempted from the first knockout qualifying round. Their most recent match was a 1-0 win on October 26th against Group D mates Puerto Rico.

Colours:

# of players on team that I've heard of: 1. Atiba Harris is a winger/forward with the Vancouver Whitecaps who scored 2 goals in 5 games earlier this season before getting injured. He has 9 goals in 25 games for his national team. I'll need a Whitecaps fan to let me know whether he's expected to be healthy by the time of this year's qualifiers.

Best players, judging by professional pedigree: Apart from Harris, only a handful of players even have club sides listed on the national team's wikipedia page. None are clubs that I've heard of. However, Keith "Bleeding" Gumbs has scored an impressive 47 goals in 131 caps (impressive, that is, until you remember those goals have been scored against the likes of St Lucia, Aruba, Turks and Caicos, etc.)

Canada's history against St Kitts and Nevis: Canada has never played against St Kitts and Nevis.

PREDICTION: In both sets of rankings, the Sugar Boys rate as the toughest opponent Canada will face in this round. But I have a hard time imagining a team that features Atiba Harris as far and away their best player giving Canada too much trouble. Maybe they might nick a goal at home, but frankly if Canada doesn't take the full 6 points from St Kitts and Nevis, and at least 15 points in the group, I'll be quite disappointed.

The two matches will be the last two of the group, so if things are done and dusted by then, the competitive balance might shift a bit, but not so much as to make a Canada loss a realistic possibility.

DATES (home team first)

11 November 2011: St Kitts and Nevis vs Canada

15 November 2011: Canada vs St Kitts and Nevis (BMO Field, Toronto, ON)

Know your enemy #1: St Lucia

Know your enemy #2: The Blue Hurricane (Puerto Rico)

Know your enemy #3: The Sugar Boys (St Kitts and Nevis)

Know your enemy #2: The Blue Hurricane

2011-08-02T10:57:00.005-05:00

PUERTO RICO

Pop: 3,967,000

Canadian city of comparable size: Between Montreal, QC (3.3m) and Toronto, ON (4.8m)

National team nickname: "The Blue Hurricane"

FIFA ranking: 141st

Best ever FIFA ranking: 97th (March 1994)

ELO ranking: 188 (as of 2 August 2011)

National team coach: Colin Clarke is currently national team coach. However, during Sunday's Montreal Impact broadcast it was mentioned that we would not be coaching the team during World Cup qualifying. Take that for what it's worth.

HOW THEY GOT HERE:

Puerto Rico were among the top 24 sides in CONCACAF as of the March 2011 rankings, so they did not have to compete in a Round 1 two-legged playoff. They last played a competitive match on 26 October 2010, a 1-0 loss to fellow Group D members, St Kitts and Nevis.

Colours:

In spite of the stars and stripes font, a pretty ballin' jersey, if I do say so myself.

# of players on team that I've heard of: 0. If I had paid closer attention to the Impact-Islanders game on TV last Sunday, I would have recognized a bunch. We all know about Marco Velez, who is listed as national team captain

Best players, judging by professional pedigree: According to wikipedia, the last edition of the national team features 5 members of the NASL's Puerto Rico Islanders. The rest is a smattering of NASL, college, other domestic players and lower division American leagues, plus two players in Europe on teams I've never heard of. Nobody stands out.

Canada's history against Puerto Rico: Canada has never played against Puerto Rico.

PREDICTION: Although rankings may suggest otherwise, my own feeling is that Puerto Rico is Canada's most dangerous opponent in the group. If they bring a strong contingent of Islanders players, they may be a more cohesive bunch that can set out to stall the Canadian attack. Therefore, my expectations are more in the neighbourhood of 2-0 or 3-1 victories, rather than the heavier blowouts I'm hoping for against the other teams.

DATES (home team first)

6 September 2011: Puerto Rico vs Canada

11 October 2011: Canada vs Puerto Rico (BMO Field, Toronto, ON)

Know your enemy #1: St Lucia

Know your enemy #2: The Blue Hurricane (Puerto Rico)

Know your enemy #3: The Sugar Boys (St Kitts and Nevis)

Canada's world cup draw

2011-07-31T15:17:00.005-05:00

Too often I have complained about Canada's luck, or lack thereof, in being drawn into difficult groups for qualification to various FIFA tournaments. This is the loser's lament. A good team will beat its competition, no matter who it is.

Still, it never hurts to avoid some of the more difficult opponents. In that sense, the round 2 group that Canada was drawn into during yesterday's preliminary World Cup draw ticks all the boxes.

Other than Guatemala, Canada should have had few worries about its potential round 2 foes. And a group that features St Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis and Puerto Rico as challengers should not strike fear into Stephen Hart and the boys. These six matches should represent a chance for the team to build depth and cohesion, and possibly for Dwayne De Rosario or Ali Gerba to take a run at Dale Mitchell's goal scoring record. I am slightly worried that the team might only manage a draw in the away leg in Puerto Rico, but I have no doubt that the team should qualify comfortably.

If they do, they will end up in a semifinal group that features Honduras, Cuba, and likely Panama. The drawing of the semifinal group was always going to be more important than the round 2 selection, even if Canada had ended up with Guatemala. And this largely has to be seen as a win for Canada as well.

Cuba should be a walkover for Canada. If not, we're not good enough. That leaves Honduras and Panama. Both are teams we can and should beat. Honduras were beaten 2-1 in a friendly in Montreal, while Canada was in the driver's seat against Panama in the Gold Cup until an injury time gaffe. It won't be easy, but Canada is not a strong enough team that it ever would be.

I am certain that we will get through our round 2 group with little trouble. I'm not certain we'll advance to the Hex, but this draw has given us a good chance. And if we get into the final six, especially with the potential of a playoff with New Zealand if we finish 4th, anything can happen.

Which is all we could ever ask for.

CANADA'S WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION SCHEDULE

home team listed first

Friday 2 September : Canada v St Lucia
Tuesday 6 September : Puerto Rico v Canada
Friday 7 October : St. Lucia v Canada
Tuesday 11 October : Canada v Puerto Rico
Friday 11 November : St. Kitts and Nevis v Canada
Tuesday 15 November : Canada v St. Kitts and Nevis

Know your enemy #1: St Lucia

2011-07-30T11:10:00.008-05:00

ST LUCIA

Pop: 170,000

Canadian city of comparable size: Regina, Saskatchewan

FIFA ranking: 183rd

Best ever FIFA ranking: 108 (April 2003)

ELO ranking: currently unavailable

National team coach: ~~Ces Podd (yes, his real name)~~ Alain Providence

HOW THEY GOT HERE:

St Lucia advanced to round 2 of World Cup qualifying by defeating 168th-ranked Aruba in penalties after equaling their Caribbean rivals 6-6 on aggregate over 2 legs (each team won 4-2 at home).

Colours:

# of players on team that I've heard of: 0

Best players, judging by professional pedigree: According to wikipedia, the national team features 3 players who ply their trade off the island: Vernus Abbott, Kurt Frederick, and Pernal Williams, all of whom play for Trinidad's W Connection.

Canada's history against St Lucia: Canada has never played against St Lucia.

PREDICTION: If Canada does not win each match by at least 3 goals, I'll be surprised and frankly a little disappointed. This is an opportunity for the likes of De Rosario, Gerba or heck, even Rob Friend to pad their goal scoring stats.

DATES (home team first)

2 September 2011: Canada vs St Lucia (BMO Field, Toronto, ON)

7 October 2011: St Lucia vs Canada

Know your enemy #1: St Lucia

Know your enemy #2: The Blue Hurricane (Puerto Rico)

Know your enemy #3: The Sugar Boys (St Kitts and Nevis)

UPDATE: St Lucia roster for Canada match [source]
The full squad reads - # 6 Nathan Justin – Centre Back , # 5 Rickson Augustin – Centre Back, # 10 Tremain Shayne Paul – Midfield, #16 Pernal Williams - Left Back, # 3 Fabian Joseph – Right Back, # 9 Kevin Edwards - Midfield, # 11 Jamil Joseph - Centre Forward, # 8 Zaine Pierre – Midfield, Pierre will be travelling from Italy to Toronto to join the team # 21 Pesious Polius - Goalkeeper, # 1 Iran Cassius - Goalkeeper, # 7 Enderson George – Right Midfield/Forward, # 2 Bernard Edward - Centre Back, # 12 Hiram Hunte -Defence Midfield. # 14 Guy Joseph - Midfield (Captain), # 4 Kurt Fredrick - Leftwing, # 15 Cliff Valcin - Striker and # 17 Terran John-Midfield.

St Lucia record since 2010: 1 win (vs Aruba), 1 draw, 7 losses

MLS TradeCentre

2011-07-14T22:35:00.005-05:00

American Idol is the worst thing about television, culture, and possibly human history. Running a close second, though, is TSN's TradeCentre, the annual frenzy surrounding the NHL's trade deadline to which TSN dedicates about 72 hours of coverage and provides countless teams of 'analysts' (I use the word generously), each more uninteresting than the last.

For possibly the first time, a series of MLS trades, involving both Canadian MLS teams, has caused a ripple in the Canadian sports world. Terry Dunfield, traded from Vancouver Whitecaps to Toronto for future and financial considerations, was trending on twitter this afternoon, for whatever that's worth.

In addition to acquiring Dunfield, Toronto shipped out Last Original Red^TM Nana Attakora, along with forward Alan Gordon and midfielder Jacob Peterson, to the San Jose Earthquakes for Jamaican international Ryan Johnson and some of the usual non-human nonsense that gets thrown into MLS trades.

I could get into the implications for teams and fanbases but to be honest, I don't much care, and there are other sites out there that will do a much better job of same. Both Toronto and Vancouver are in the midst of dreadful competitive seasons and the soccer betting websites have them as longshots even to qualify for the MLS playoffs.

I have a more immediate interest in the Canadian players involved, as well as possible consequences for other Canadians who did not change clubs today.

It's hard not to feel sorry for Dunfield. He was the returning hometown boy, scored a goal in the magical season opener for Vancouver, and generally appeared to offer every fibre of his being to the cause. He might have appreciated the change of scenery if not for the fact that he was being shipped out to another team that has been equally miserable on the pitch. Not only that, but he goes from being one of the more regular midfield players with the Whitecaps to a TFC squad that is crowded with central midfielders: Julian de Guzman, Tony Tchani, Torsten Frings, Nathan Sturgis, not to mention the youngsters like Oscar Cordon and Matt Stinson.

If he does end up playing a role for Toronto FC, it will be because Julian de Guzman has moved on to greener pastures. It's not hard to see that de Guzman and Aron Winter have not been on the same page, and Winter would surely like to have use of a DP slot and related money to acquire a central defender. If the rumours are true Julian could be headed back to Europe, which could be best for all parties, including the Canadian national team.

Winter needs to fill a whole at centre half because early on he decided that Attakora lacked the skill or temperament to do the job in his system. He was the first of Toronto's merry-go-round of coaches to question Attakora's talent, but all of those previous coaches were garbage. So he may be right, but I would not be surprised if former Canadian manager Frank Yallop is able to get the best out of the young Nana (he is still only 22) in San Jose.

As a fan of Canada first, my ultimate goal is to see as many Canadians as possible starting for their clubs and gaining valuable experience. If this flurry of activity results in each of Attakora, Dunfield and de Guzman moving to new clubs and becoming regulars, then it will have been a success. (Though I do shed a tear for Vancouver's lineup, Arsenal-like -- of a few years back --- in their lack of domestic players).

City	Date	Opponent	GF	GA	result	wins	5
Edmonton	2008-10-15	Mexico	2	2	draw	draws	3
Edmonton	2004-09-04	Honduras	1	1	draw	losses	1
Edmonton	2000-07-16	T & T	0	2	loss	points	18
Edmonton	1997-10-12	Mexico	2	2	draw	win %	56%
Edmonton	1997-06-01	Costa Rica	1	0	win	pts %	67%
Edmonton	1996-10-13	Cuba	2	0	win
Edmonton	1996-10-10	Cuba	2	0	win
Edmonton	1996-08-30	Panama	3	1	win
Edmonton	1993-07-31	Australia	2	1	win